Arizona Fall League Midpoint: Jack Hurley’s Breakout, David Hagaman’s Velocity Dip, and Kyle Amendt’s Quiet Dominance
Here are some of the main takeaways from the third week of Arizona Fall League action.
We've hit the halfway point in the Arizona Fall League. Through 16 games, the Salt River Rafters sit at 8-8. Not much has changed from a usage standpoint involving the Diamondbacks' prospects in the AFL.
Here are some of the main takeaways from the third week of Arizona Fall League action.
Jack Hurley's Best Game Ever
The 2025 season has been a trying year for D-backs outfielder Jack Hurley. He spent time in the complex to adjust his swing and approach, due to a tough year in Double-A Amarillo. Back in Arizona again, he's hoping that those adjustments will pay off and finish the year on a strong note.
The first sign that those changes are taking hold came on Thursday. In a 16-6 blowout win, Hurley flirted with the cycle. He finished 4-for-5 with a double, triple, two home runs, and eight RBI. Hurley said it was "the best game I've had, ever."
Even noting the smaller sample size, Hurley's batted ball data looks somewhat encouraging. 12 of the 22 balls he's put into play have registered an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH. While opportunities have been few and far between, with a deep group of outfielders this year, he's made the most of what he's gotten.
How he finishes the fall will determine where he fits in the organization's plans. Corbin Carroll is entrenched in right field for the rest of the decade and beyond. Ryan Waldschmidt, the club's top prospect, is slated for a 2026 debut and is the long-term solution in left field. Best-case scenario, Druw Jones is at least one full season away from being a legitimate center field option.
With higher upside guys in the organization, Hurley seems likely to project as a fourth outfielder role. He hasn't gotten any run in center field in the fall, with all of his starts in the field coming in left. That isn't too problematic, as the team will need to look at their internal options at that spot before deciding on a move in the offseason.
Michael McDermott
Jansel Luis Remains a Tricky Evaluation
Jansel Luis continues to remain a difficult prospect to evaluate, especially at the plate. He shows the ability to attack the opposite gap well while at the same time being unable to drive the ball to his pull field. That suggests he's still a hit-over-power approach at the plate.
Looking at his pull-side line drives and fly balls, he has not hit a ball harder than 95.4 MPH in the air to his pull field. The other two batted balls are a 75.8 MPH lineout and a 93.5 MPH single to the right-center gap. Looking at his exit velocity metrics, he's still hitting the top of the baseball. 12 of 22 hard-hit balls have a negative launch angle.
The D-backs will have to address that problem in 2026, before his Rule 5 clock starts. There's still hope that Luis will develop more raw and in-game power as he fills out his frame more in his early 20s. However, those gains will be irrelevant if he can't hit the ball in the air.
Michael McDermott
David Hagaman Velocity Concerns
David Hagaman is still the best prospect the D-backs are sending to the Fall League this year. But his last start was a disaster, as he surrendered a run in two-thirds of an inning.
He threw only 12 of 31 pitches for strikes, including 6-of-6 first-pitch balls. The only hit he allowed was a well-placed chopper to first base and Tony Blanco Jr. couldn't make a clean play on.
Beyond just the bad performance showed another concerning trend was shown in his last two appearances. When Hagaman abbreviates his delivery while holding a runner on first, his velocity dips. The sample size is small, with only 18 of 126 pitches (14%) in that situation. But it is something to monitor moving forward.
Here's how much his velocity dips, in MPH:
- 4-Seamer (10): 93.7 -> 91.8
- Curveball (5): 83.3 -> 80.9
- Slider (3): 86.5 -> 85.3
I haven't taken a look to see if the pitch shapes were also impacted. I'm not knowledgeable enough on pitching mechanics to adequately explain what's going on. The best I can do is ask someone who might know.
Kyle Amendt Cruising Along
The 8.31 ERA is not a good indicator of how well Kyle Amendt has pitched in the Arizona Fall League. He's appeared in six games, four scoreless, with a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 5.1 innings. In the third week, he posted two scoreless innings with four strikeouts and two walks.
Amendt has seen better results with his slider. At the start of the fall, he talked about having that as a bridge pitch on days he didn't have a great feel for either his four-seamer or curveball. He hasn't commanded the curve well early in the fall, which has forced him to throw the slider more at the start.
It's not all that surprising that a pitcher who will pitch in the major leagues if healthy in 2026 is dominating the Arizona Fall League. He has a 43% strikeout rate against overmatched competition. The walk rate is still a bit high, at 13.0%, but he'll have another 4-5 appearances to lower that.
On his best days, he has a three-pitch mix that can lock up right-handed hitters. Even though his fastball is averaging just 91.1 MPH, he's producing a 45% whiff rate and a 41.2% putaway rate in two-strike counts. The slider is showing a 40% putaway rate against right-handed hitters in similar counts.
Based on what I've seen so far, he deserves a chance to compete for a bullpen spot next spring.
