D-backs 2026 Arbitration Projections and Payroll Outlook

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have 11 players eligible for arbitration next year. MLB Trade Rumors just released their arbitration estimates for the 2026 season. Here are the projected salaries for all of them.

The model that MLB Trade Rumors uses was developed Dr. Matt Swartz, who is now a Senior Director of Finance for Comcast. MLBTR has used his model for the past 15 years and is considered the standard in the baseball industry.

In order for a player to be eligible for salary arbitration, he must either accrue 3-5 seasons of service in MLB or be in the top 20% for those with two years (Super Two). Typically, the threshold for Super Two is at least 125 days.

Both the players and teams will exchange figures and will have until the meeting to negotiate a settlement. Most of these settlements will be one-year deals. If neither party can come to a settlement, it then goes to an arbitration hearing. There, a panel will decide what the player's salary will be for the upcoming season.

The Diamondbacks under general manager Mike Hazen have been a file then trial club.

Payroll Implications

The D-backs already have $102.738 million locked up in payroll for the 2026 season, according to Cots Contracts. The total of his 11 arbitration-eligible players adds up to $26 million. With those two figures, we can project a $128.738 million payroll for now until these cases are settled.

Payroll is expected to come down from the $179.2 million figure for 2025. Assuming as such, the team has maybe $30 million at most to spend on their 2026 payroll.

That doesn't give them much room to operate this offseason. Most of it is required to address the gaping holes in their rotation and bullpen. Hazen will have to be creative to make the 2026 squad competitive and hope that some of their younger players break out.

Non-Tender Candidates

To be eligible for salary arbitration, an eligible player must be tendered a contract. Those decisions will be made over the next 6 weeks. A player who is not tendered a contract for 2026 will become a free agent.

One of their potential arbitration-eligible players, José Herrera, has already elected free agency. He was designated for assignment in August and outrighted to the minors. He would have been a non-tender candidate, but he'll get a head start on his free agency.

Kyle Nelson ($1 million) is the easiest non-tender decision. The D-backs picked up Brandyn Garcia at the trade deadline in the Josh Naylor deal, while also adding Kyle Backhus and Philip Abner to their roster. He had already been designated for assignment and outrighted this year.

Pitching prospects Kohl Drake, Spencer Giesting, and Yu-Min Lin could be options for long relief at various points in 2026. That makes them more valuable than Nelson, especially considering all three will not be starting their 40-man clocks this offseason. Given that his innings are easily replaceable by cheaper arms, it's likely the team lets him go.

Outfielders Alek Thomas ($2.2 million) and Jake McCarthy ($1.9 million) both turned in a poor 2025 season. However, their salaries are low enough that the team might roster them anyway. Of the two, Thomas seems like the likelier candidate. The team could explore a trade with either player, given Thomas' prospect pedigree and McCarthy's successful 2024 season.

Kevin Ginkel ($3 million), Ryan Thompson ($3.9 million), and Ildemaro Vargas ($1.4 million) could be surprise candidates. However, in all three cases, the cost to replace them might prove to be more expensive than keeping them.