Diamondbacks Enter Final Week in Do-or-Die Wild Card Race
The Arizona Diamondbacks find their postseason hopes hanging by a thread entering the final week of the 2025 season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks find their postseason hopes hanging by a thread entering the final week of the 2025 season. With six games to go, the final Wild Card is the only spot up for grabs in the National League.
Entering play on September 23rd, the D-backs are just a game back of both the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets. Of the three teams, the Reds are the only one who control their playoff destiny. That makes them the primary threat to Arizona's miraculous bid to make the postseason.
The odds are not necessarily in their favor. These are the D-backs' odds to make the postseason in the final stretch.
- Baseball Reference: 15.8%
- FanGraphs: 6.1%
- Baseball Prospectus: 5.5%
Based on those odds, it doesn't look good. However, it's a miracle they're still in the race despite their 1-9 stretch from July 21st to August 1st. Since the calendar moved to August, they've gone 11-3-1 in their past 15 series, and won 28 of their last 46. This run has added more excitement to the Wild Card race than initially anticipated.
Arizona needs to gain two games on the Reds, who have the head-to-head tiebreaker, and one game on the Mets. They'll need to win the final two series, going at least 4-2, then hope the Reds go 2-4 and the Mets 3-3.
Midweek Series Preview
The road ahead won't be easy, as they're taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the final six games. The NL West is the only division still up for grabs, with the Dodgers' magic number to clinch down to just three.
For this midweek series, these games matter most to the D-backs.
- ARZ: 3 vs. Dodgers
- NYM: 3 at Cubs
- CIN: 3 vs. Pirates
- SDP: 2 vs. Brewers (Padres won series opener)
The Mets and Reds will be facing two teams whose playoff fate is essentially known. The Cubs will face the Padres in the Wild Card series, most likely at Wrigley Field. Chicago's magic number to clinch the No. 4 seed is down to 4 games. The ideal outcome is that Chicago clinches that spot this week by sweeping the Mets and getting that last win from the Brewers.
The Reds take on a Pirates team that never was truly in contention in 2025. However, the best pitcher in baseball will take the mound for the series. Paul Skenes will face off against Hunter Greene on Wednesday in one of the most hyped pitching duels of the season. It's hard to predict how the series will go. Cincinnati has won its last five games and is pitching great.
The out-of-town scores don't mean much if the D-backs don't take care of business at home. They need to do everything they can on the field to delay the Dodgers from celebrating another division title. At a minimum, they have to win this series and hope the Padres can do the same.
Probable Starters vs. Dodgers
- RHP Shohei Ohtani (1-1, 3.29 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (13-8, 5.02 ERA)
- LHP Blake Snell (5-4, 2.44 ERA) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (7-3, 3.44 ERA)
- RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-8, 2.58 ERA) vs. RHP Zac Gallen (13-14, 4.70 ERA)
If the outcomes can go Arizona's way, it sets up the final weekend for another photo finish. The D-backs are certainly hoping that they aren't the last team without a chair in this race.
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Michael McDermott
Michael McDermott
