Diamondbacks Fall in Extras, Miss Chance to Gain in Wild Card Race

With the Reds and Mets both losing Wednesday night, the Diamondbacks had a chance to take control in the Wild Card chase. However, that opportunity slipped away after a 5-4 loss to the Dodgers in 11 innings at Chase Field.

This game featured a similar script to the last. Once again, they were stymied by a well-paid Dodgers starter. Blake Snell held Arizona to one run in six innings, despite not having his best command. Like Tuesday, Arizona was trailing by multiple runs once they got to the Dodgers' bullpen.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson turned in a quality start, keeping the Dodgers close. He tied his career-high with nine strikeouts over six innings, the only real mistake a cutter that missed over the heart of the plate to Andy Pages. Pages crushed a two-run homer that put the Dodgers up 3-1 at the time.

They trailed 4-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Once again, they clawed their way back against a struggling Dodgers bullpen to tie the game late.

It was the top of the lineup that keyed that rally against left-hander Alex Vesia, who had a 27/12 shutdown-to-meltdown ratio coming in. Ketel Marte ripped a single to left, Geraldo Perdomo worked a walk, and Corbin Carroll doubled to put the D-backs in a strong position to tie the game. Gabriel Moreno reached on an infield single, and Adrian Del Castillo delivered a sacrifice fly off the bench.

Ultimately, Arizona couldn't finish the comeback. Their extra-inning execution came back to bite them once again, as they let a golden opportunity to win in the 10th slip by for the second time in seven games. The Dodgers scored the winning run in the 11th and held on in the bottom half.

Here are some of the key moments that decided the game in the Dodgers' favor.

Decision to Bunt Backfires in 10th

Thanks to a great throw from Carroll, the D-backs had a golden opportunity to win in the 10th. With Ketel Marte starting the inning at second as the Manfred Man, they had Perdomo, Carroll, and Moreno set to hit.

Manager Torey Lovullo had Perdomo sacrifice Marte over to third for the first out. He explained his decision on the DbacksTV broadcast's postgame coverage.

"The analytics says to bunt," said Lovullo.

Looking back at the inning, Arizona had an 81.3% win expectancy according to FanGraphs. Perdomo's sacrifice bunt raised their win expectancy to 82.9%, then the intentional walks up to 83.5%.

For a gain of just 2.2% in win expectancy, they sacrificed their hottest hitter and MVP candidate, then took the bat out of the hands of both Carroll and Moreno. It also allowed Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to match up against both Jake McCarthy and James McCann for the final two outs.

"I feel like when we get a runner at third [base] and less than two outs, you've got to find a way to win the baseball game. I knew there was a chance they'd pitch around Corbin. I knew there was a chance they'd load the bases with Gabi. We had some things in place, we secured some things in place, that we felt we were going to score a run with Jake at the plate. We just didn't do it, we didn't execute."

McCarthy rightly deserves blame for failing to execute a competent at-bat. But again, why set him up for the game's most critical at-bat rather than give three of your best hitters a chance to win it with one swing? McCarthy is a .206 hitter on the season who lost his starting center fielder job and was optioned to Triple-A earlier this season. Perdomo, Carroll, and Moreno are hitting at an All-Star level. It still doesn't make sense.

Lovullo Sticks with Philip Abner, Gets Burned

Another moment that hurt the D-backs that could have been avoided came in the eighth inning. With Mookie Betts on base and Teoscar Hernández coming up, Lovullo had a right-hander warming in the bullpen in Juan Morillo to face Tommy Edman. He chose to keep the rookie left-hander in the game.

The decision didn't work, as Hernández crushed a double to the left-center gap to push the Dodgers' lead to three. Morillo got out of the inning by inducing a groundout from Edman, but they trailed by four.

"It's cut fastball up and in, and that's right where Abner throws the ball, we just missed a spot," said Lovullo. "Abner's strength matches [Hernández's] limitation, we just didn't execute."

Noting Abner's stuff, his four-seam fastball has natural cut to it. It averages 2.3" of glove-side break with 13.2" induced vertical break, giving it a natural cutter shape.

Hernández is a .273 hitter with a .364 slugging percentage and .274 wOBA against left-handed four-seam fastballs and cutters in Game Day Zones 1 and 11, which would be up and in.

Next Game

The D-backs will go with a bullpen game to close out the series against the Dodgers. It's unclear how many more chances they'll get to catch up in the Wild Card race, but each game is almost a must-win moving forward.

Jalen Beeks will be the opener to face Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. Nabil Crismatt is a candidate to pitch bulk innings afterward. The Dodgers will send their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to try to close out another National League West division title.

First pitch at Chase Field will be 12:40 P.M. MST.