D-backs Set for Another Thrilling Photo Finish in 2025’s Final Week
The final week of the 2025 regular season should have another exciting photo finish. They are within two games of the last National League Wild Card spot.
The final week of the 2025 regular season should have another exciting photo finish. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds are both close to the struggling New York Mets. They are within two games of the last National League Wild Card spot.
Given the closeness of these three teams, it's essential to note the tiebreakers. The Reds have the head-to-head tiebreaker against both the D-backs and Mets. That would put them in the postseason between the three teams if they all finish with the same record.
Another development is that there is no scenario in which the Mets can claim a tiebreaker over the D-backs. Should the two teams finish with the same record, Arizona will have clinched the intradivision tiebreaker. New York is 24-24 vs. the NL East, while the D-backs are 25-21 vs. the NL West.
It won't be easy for Arizona to take this one home. Following the series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies, they face the top two teams in their division. That will present a tough challenge for the D-backs, as they fight for their postseason lives.
Both the Dodgers and Padres will have something to play for when they face Arizona in the final week of the season. Los Angeles will want to wrap up the NL West race as soon as possible. San Diego will want to get their postseason ticket punched as early as possible.
So the D-backs should expect nothing less than the best the division has to offer. The path is no different than what was laid out on Monday; winning the final four series is paramount. They're on their way to No. 2, if they can take care of business against the Phillies.
As the season comes to a close, let's look at some of the major story lines that got us to this point.
Zac Gallen's Insane Turnaround
The D-backs would not be competing for a Wild Card spot without Zac Gallen's turnaround. Arizona chose to hold onto its Opening Day starter, a decision that looks fantastic in hindsight.
His regular-season numbers won't recover, but he's pitched to a 2.82 ERA with 51 strikeouts and 16 walks in his last 10 starts. Gallen has recorded eight quality starts since August 2nd, spanning 10 starts. That exceeds his total through July (7 QS in 22 GS). His early-season struggles led to the team's sell-off at the deadline.
The amazing part is this run that turned the D-backs ace from a tough qualifying offer decision to a no-brainer. He should also see a stronger market, increasing the likelihood he'll get a $50 million or higher contract. Such a deal would net Arizona a Top 30 pick, but they'd probably prefer re-signing Gallen instead if they can.
They'll get one more start from him this year, the series finale against the Dodgers on Thursday. It could be his final start at Chase Field as a member of the D-backs.
Gallen isn't the only starter getting it done down the stretch. Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodríguez, and Ryne Nelson have all recorded at least three quality starts and pitched at least 49 innings. The rotation will need to continue to pitch well to close out the season. They have a 3.78 ERA since August 1st, backed by a 3.77 xERA and 3.80 FIP.
Four Arms Emerge from the D-backs Bullpen
You don't win 27 of 45 games without some solid relief work mixed in. While the bullpen has been a collective nightmare, pitching to a 4.65 ERA since August 1st, there have been four arms to emerge.
The four arms that have keyed the turnaround are Andrew Saalfrank, Jalen Beeks, Ryan Thompson, and John Curtiss. Here's how each pitcher has fared over that stretch.
- LHP Andrew Saalfrank: 20 G, 1.83 ERA, 13 shutdowns, 3 meltdowns
- LHP Jalen Beeks: 16 G, 1.93 ERA, 4 shutdowns, 0 meltdowns
- RHP Ryan Thompson: 8 G, 1.35 ERA, 4 shutdowns, 1 meltdown
- RHP John Curtiss: 18 G, 2.96 ERA, 6 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns
The quartet of relievers has combined for 26 shutdowns compared to just six meltdowns. Shutdowns are relief appearances that improve the team's win expectancy by 6%, and meltdowns have the opposite effect.
While the unit collectively hasn't been good, having four capable arms can be enough to win ball games. When they get good starting pitching, it reduces the number of outs the bullpen has to get. It allows manager Torey Lovullo to deploy his best relievers to finish a game once he has the lead.
The rest of the unit will have to sort itself out. Some promising arms include Brandyn Garcia, Philip Abner, and Taylor Rashi.
Related Coverage
Michael McDermott
