D-backs AFL Mailbag: Hagaman's Upside, Hurley's Breakout

For the first time ever, D-backs Under Review is doing a mailbag. We took questions from both X and AZ Snake Pit, with the first topic covering the Arizona Fall League.

So far, I have covered 12 AFL games this year. I've spoken to six of the seven players who've participated and two of the Diamondbacks' minor league pitching coaches.

@jeffirving16: Who has caught your eye most from the Dbacks so far this fall league?

Jack Hurley has probably caught my eye the most in terms of improvement. He had a miserable season with Amarillo, struck out in 42% of his plate appearances. Not too recently, he broke out with a 4-for-5 game with two home runs and eight RBI. He described it as his best game ever.

Arizona hitters have just four barrels and three home runs in the Fall League, with Hurley accounting for most of the damage (3 barrels, 2 home runs). He's tagged five balls with an exit velocity north of 100 MPH.

I'd put him in the cautiously optimistic area. He's made some swing adjustments, including his leg kick and the way he grips the bat. Hurley told me he uses the Trajekt machines to stay sharp between games.

He'll need a strong AFL, as Druw Jones will be joining him in Amarillo next year. Waldschmidt and Jones have the best chances of reaching MLB among their entire OF prospect group. I'm not 100% sold that Slade Caldwell will be a difference-maker just yet.

There's still an opportunity for Hurley to improve as a player, although I project him as a fourth outfielder long-term. I think there may be more thump in the bat than what Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas can provide.

@movingfrequency: How much upside does Hagaman have via the eye test?

Seeing David Hagaman in person has more or less solidified my projection on him. He's still, by far, the best prospect the D-backs are sending to the Fall League. I currently have him as a 50 FV prospect with a No. 3 starter projection.

Lance Brozdowski and Sam Dykstra both think Hagaman could add velocity further removed from elbow surgery. He's averaging 93.3 MPH in the AFL. His best secondary pitches are a curveball and a gyro slider that may occasionally flag as a cutter. He hasn't thrown very many changeups. I would probably grade each of his four pitches in the 50-55 range.

I've seen one great, one mediocre, and one terrible start out of him so far. In his first start, he was flat-out dominant. His breaking stuff was missing bats. However, he had trouble commanding anything in his last start.

One thing that caught my eye is that Hagaman loses velocity when he has to abbreviate his delivery. He's worked exclusively out of the stretch all fall, but when he has to hold a runner at first, he does a shorter leg lift. When he does, his overall velocity drops 2 MPH. That's something that needs to be addressed in the offseason. I'll bring it up with pitching coach Dylan Olsonawski this week.

I'm not too particularly worried about what I see out here. He's two full seasons away from being considered a legitimate rotation option, as he builds up his innings count. He's still thrown fewer than 50 innings between the regular season and the AFL.

Jim McLennan: How has Drey Jameson looked, and what do you see his role next year?

The velocity is good on all of his pitches, the command is still not quite there. He's hitting 97-99 MPH on his four-seamer, which is the first good sign. His control is still very erratic; he's about equally as likely to dot a corner as he is to throw one under the chin. Parks Harber can attest to that; he got both in the same at-bat last week.

On his best days, he can command five different pitches. Attack the zone with sinkers, then use the four-seamer, slider, and changeup to put away hitters. His slider and changeup both get an exceptional amount of drop, so they could be effective strike-to-ball offerings in two-strike counts.

If he's healthy going into spring, he should have an inside track to make the bullpen. I don't think he should be put in the back end right away; let him get some outings under his belt. However, I could see him making a run at the closer's job by June if they have injuries. I'll talk about some closer candidates later in the offseason.