D-backs Claim Elvin Rodríguez, Pavin Smith’s Season Officially Ends

The Arizona Diamondbacks added more pitching depth on Friday, claiming right-hander Elvin Rodríguez off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. With a full 40-man roster, the D-backs transferred first baseman Pavin Smith to the 60-day injured list to clear space.

The move guarantees that Smith's 2025 season comes to an official end. He suffered a left quad strain on August 27th against the Cincinnati Reds. Jacob Gurvis reported three days later that the Diamondbacks' first baseman was unlikely to return this season.

Here's my analysis of Friday's roster moves and what to expect moving forward.

Pavin Smith's Season Ends on a Sour Note

Smith earned the left-handed part of the designated hitter platoon with a strong finish to the 2024 season. That allowed the organization to feel comfortable with letting Joc Pederson walk despite a great year. It was a decision that looked great in the first four weeks of the season, as Smith was slashing .393/.500/.759 with four home runs through April 22nd.

It was unlikely that he would maintain that offensive production, but what happened next came as a complete surprise. In his final 65 games of the season, he slashed just .215/.318/.333 at the plate with only four home runs. Compounding the struggles was a high strikeout rate, punching out in 72 of his final 218 plate appearances.

Not only did this slump affect his overall season numbers, but it also showed up in his underlying metrics. Looking at his expected stats on Statcast, he's carrying a .223 xBA, .410 xSLG, and .327 xwOBA for the season.

His full-season numbers are still heavily influenced by his early-season surge, which accounts for only a quarter of his season. During his slump, he's posting a .201 xBA, .348 xSLG, and .292 xwOBA, which further questions his ability to remain a reliable bat in the middle of their lineup.

It's important to pay attention to the expected stats on Statcast whenever the team makes a roster decision, as they are similar to the team's internal analytics. While they are in a soft rebuild, Smith may still get more opportunities to prove he belongs on the Diamondbacks roster.

It's unlikely Arizona will non-tender Smith in November. Even with difficult roster decisions to make this offseason, he provides the club with a cheap left-handed bat. In addition to the DH decision, they also have to consider first base in 2026. Tyler Locklear's struggles haven't made that easy either.

Who is Elvin Rodríguez?

Rodríguez, 27, originally signed as an amateur free agent with the Los Angeles Angels in July 2014. Three years later, the Angels dealt him to the Detroit Tigers for former D-backs No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton. He climbed up his way in the Tigers' system, debuting for them in 2022.

Rodríguez has bounced around five different organizations in his career. His stops include the Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, and now the D-backs in the past four seasons. That journey also included a stop in Japan for the 2024 season. In his career, he's 0-6 with a 9.15 ERA and a 7.40 FIP.

Rodríguez signed with the Brewers ahead of the 2025 season before getting designated for assignment. He was later claimed by the Orioles before undergoing the same process.

Elvin Rodríguez's Stuff Profile

It's pretty obvious that Rodríguez's stuff continues to earn opportunities , and his command is why he's now in his fifth organization since 2022. Here's a profile of his stuff, based on the pitches he's thrown at the major league level.

He leads with a four-seam fastball that averages 94.4 MPH. It gets a lot of carry, averaging 19.3 inches of induced vertical break (iVB).

Despite the high carry, opposing hitters are hitting .333 with a .778 slugging percentage and six home runs allowed. Considering the shape (19.3" iVB/6.3" arm-side break), it's definitely more of a command issue.

With a pitcher that has an overhand slot (arm angle 50° according to Statcast), the question is perfecting the pitch mix to complement the high-rise four-seamer. Some of the pitch types included are a cutter, sweeper, curveball, and a changeup.

The cutter is a new addition to his arsenal, as it didn't start showing up on pitch tracking until this season. Like the four-seamer, it's been hit hard, yielding a .545 average and a 1.364 SLG. The two fastballs combine for -11 run value. With a shape of 6.8" iVB and 2.7" glove-side break, it's a pitch that requires more precise command to avoid getting hit.

One thing that Rodríguez has done well is getting results on his breaking ball. The curveball, which has an exceptional 59.4" of drop (-14.7" iVB) creates huge separation from his four-seamer. That's why it's his most commonly used secondary (20.9%). He's inducing a 33.3% whiff rate and a 26.3% putaway rate (2-strike pitches that become strikeouts).

The sweeper has also been a successful pitch against right-handed hitters, who are batting .111 with a .222 slugging percentage. Despite the success, it's a weird fit considering the high arm angle and big carry four-seamer.

Elvin Rodríguez's Outlook with the D-backs

Rodríguez will be down to his final option year in 2026, allowing the D-backs to shuttle him to and from Reno. With the options dwindling down, it may be more pertinent to shorten him up into a reliever and see how quickly he can recover. That's still a relatively new experience for him, despite 23 of his 25 appearances in Triple-A being in relief.

In addition to shortening him up, the team should streamline his arsenal. That could mean relying more on a north-south approach using the high-carry four-seamer with the heavy drop curveball. I think a death ball slider, close to a (0/0 shape), would be an excellent third pitch, but that's not a fix for this season. It will be interesting to see what his pitch mix looks like in Reno.

The team has a difficult roster crunch to consider once the season ends, a topic I'll address in a month or so. They currently have nine players on the 60-day injured list and at least six prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Rodríguez has three weeks to show he won't be one of the players bumped off the 40-man.