How the D-backs Can Make a Miraculous 2025 Playoff Run
Can the D-backs complete this miracle run? The next 12 games will decide!
Welp, somehow they did it. The Arizona Diamondbacks are miraculously back in the heat of a postseason chase. With 12 games left in their season, they are just two games back of the New York Mets for the final Wild Card.
This comes after essentially punting on their season at the two-thirds mark. The D-backs were big sellers at the deadline, shipping out veterans. Josh Naylor, Randal Grichuk, Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly, and Shelby Miller were all dealt, mostly for prospect returns.
It could have been easy for the team to give up over the final two months of the year. Entering play on August 2nd, they were 51-59 and 10 games out of a playoff spot. Instead, they've gone on their best run of the season. Arizona has won 26 of its last 44 games to climb back to .500, injecting life back into what was originally a dead season. All with a roster of four stars, spare parts, and young players looking to prove themselves.
Final Four Series Will be a Gauntlet
The path ahead for the D-backs will be difficult. They couldn't have drawn a tougher set of four opponents: the Giants, Phillies, Dodgers, and then Padres. All four teams are either leading their division or are ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.
With that in mind, the team needs to play with the same mentality they did down the stretch in 2023. Every series moving forward is their postseason. Every game moving forward is Game 7 of the NLCS. That's the level of urgency they need to play.
It's not an entirely new concept for this team, as 10 of the 28 active players were on that 2023 NLCS roster. Six of them are regulars in the starting lineup. Perhaps in a fun twist of irony, the Phillies are one of the four teams they'll play in this stretch.
The first step is taking on the Giants. That will be the most important series ahead of them, and the only one they should focus on. The other teams don't matter as much if they can't win this series.
Everything is at stake for this series. Not only the head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco, but also against the Mets. Intradivision record is the tiebreaker between Arizona and New York. The D-backs have three fewer losses against their division (23-20) than the Mets (23-23), so they control their destiny. With that in mind, the series outcomes vs. the Dodgers and Padres are also critical to their season success.
If the D-backs get through these final 12 games and get into the postseason, there's no question that they've earned it.
Tiebreaker Situations
Realistically speaking, only the final Wild Card spot is in play for the D-backs. They are 10.5 games back of Chicago for the top spot and 7.0 games behind San Diego for the second. Passing either club is unrealistic, so only the final spot is truly in play for Arizona.
The first tiebreaker often comes down to head-to-head record. That tiebreaker should easily apply to teams within the division, as there are an odd number of games (13) played head-to-head.
However, there are two teams that Arizona has tied the head-to-head record with, the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals. That means the second tiebreaker will come down to intradivision record, which is an even number of games (52).
With how close the standings are, it's important to go over all the tiebreakers that could apply to the D-backs after Game 162.
- Mets (77-73): Intradivision record (ARI 23-20, NYM 23-23)
- Giants (75-74): Head-to-head, next series to decide
- Reds (74-75): Reds Claim head-to-head tiebreaker, 4-2
- Cardinals (73-77): Intradivision record (ARI 23-20, STL 20-22)
The D-backs control their destiny with tiebreakers over both the Mets and Giants, which are the two teams ahead of them. The Reds passing them at the end would be the ultimate doomsday scenario, as they control the tiebreaker.
What Would It Take to Reach the Postseason?
Heading down the final stretch, the D-backs' postseason odds aren't strong. Baseball Reference gives them a 12.8% chance while FanGraphs gives them 5.8%.
Realistically, they need to win all four of their remaining series and go 8-4. Given the four teams, a series sweep feels unlikely. That puts the target at 83 wins.
Assuming the D-backs finish 83-79, and capture the remaining tiebreakers, these are the records the other teams need to have.
- Mets: 6-6
- Giants: 8-5
- Reds: 8-5
- Cardinals 10-2
If they get into the postseason with only 83 wins, it would be the fewest by a Wild Card team in the six-team format. The previous low was 84, shared by the 2023 D-backs and Marlins. Arizona got the No. 6 seed in the tiebreaker due to its head-to-head record with Miami (2-4), and the rest is history.
Can the D-backs complete this miracle run? The next 12 games will decide!
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Michael McDermott
