D-backs Face Tight Payroll as Merrill Kelly Reunion Looms

The Arizona Diamondbacks have work to do this offseason to shore up their pitching staff. General manager Mike Hazen’s top priorities are clear: add a veteran starter and a reliable bullpen arm. By addressing those two spots, Arizona hopes the rest of the roster can naturally settle in.

From a payroll standpoint, there isn’t much wiggle room. Both Ken Kendrick and Hazen have indicated that payroll will come down compared to 2024–25 levels. Cot’s Contracts projects the D-backs’ payroll at $133.9 million for 2026, leaving roughly $30 million to fix their pitching.

That means Hazen may need to explore the trade market as well. However, the D-backs don’t have many appealing trade chips. Their best one, Ketel Marte, has produced at least 4.0 WAR in each of the past three seasons. But after signing another extension in April, it’s unlikely Arizona moves him unless it’s for a bona fide ace with multiple years of control.

Should the D-backs Bring Back Merrill Kelly?

If Mike Hazen turns to free agency to address the starting rotation, a Merrill Kelly reunion makes the most sense. Kelly made 22 starts for Arizona in 2025 before being traded at the deadline and has already expressed interest in returning. The right-hander, who resides in Arizona, has been one of the best value signings of the Hazen era.

Since 2021, Kelly has been one of the most consistent and durable starters. He's started 135 games and pitched to a 3.66 ERA in just under 800 innings. In four of the past five seasons, he's answered the bell at least 27 times. After a shoulder injury limited him to 13 starts in 2024, he bounced back for 32 in 2025.

It’s risky to bring back a pitcher entering age 37, but Kelly is a safer bet than most. He commands six pitches with precision, sequences hitters effectively, and relies on intelligence over velocity, a skill set that typically ages well. Think Charlie Morton with the Braves. From 2021-23, his Age 37-39 seasons, Morton made 94 starts and pitched to a 3.77 ERA over 521 innings.

Kelly has stated multiple times that his goal is to pitch for 10 MLB seasons. After 2025, he’s completed seven. For Kelly, that end goal is in sight, and the D-backs could help him get there.

What Type of Deal Should the D-backs Offer Merrill Kelly?

The D-backs will have to consider Kelly's desire to pitch three more years in the big leagues, but also avoid a lengthy commitment. There is a clear fit for him in 2026, as the organization's starting pitching depth doesn't have an extensive MLB track record.

Beyond next season, the fit is more questionable. Corbin Burnes is expected to return in the second half, and some of their unproven depth options will have more experience.

If Arizona can convince Kelly to agree to a one-year commitment, plus options for 2027 and 2028, that would be the ideal path. When he's healthy, he's exceptional at providing quality innings. So they can tie the options to the number of starts or innings he throws.

Here's how I think they should structure it.

• 2026: $3 million signing bonus plus $7 million salary
• 2027: $15 million club option with a $5 million buyout. At 25 starts or 150 innings in 2026, the option vests. At 175 innings in 2026, his 2027 salary increases to $17.5 million.
• 2028: $15 million club option with a $5 million buyout. At 25 starts or 150 innings in 2027, the option vests. At 175 innings in 2027, his 2028 salary increases to $17.5 million.

That would put Kelly on the books for $8 million in 2026, then $16 million for 2027 and 2028. He gets $15 million guaranteed at signing and can max out at $45 million if he throws 175 innings in 2026 and 2027. If he continues to be a reliable workhorse, he'll reach his goal and get compensated well for it. But it also gives the D-backs a possible out if he fails to do so.

D-backs Rotation Outlook if They Re-Sign Kelly

The D-backs won't have a premier rotation, but it'll be an experienced one from their top four starters. With a dominant but top-heavy lineup, they should be competitive in a lot of games in 2026.

This would be my projected rotation in March if they bring back Kelly. He would be Arizona's 13th different Opening Day starting pitcher when they kick off the 2026 season in Los Angeles.

• No. 1: RHP Merrill Kelly
• No. 2: RHP Ryne Nelson
• No. 3: LHP Eduardo Rodríguez
• No. 4: RHP Brandon Pfaadt
• No. 5: RHP Cristian Mena
• 40-Man Depth: LHP Kohl Drake, LHP Spencer Giesting, RHP Dylan Ray, LHP Yu-Min Lin, LHP Mitch Bratt

As mentioned before, not a lot of proven depth, which is why they need to bring back a reliable starter like Kelly. The five depth pitchers listed are currently not on Arizona's 40-man roster at the time of this writing.