Should the D-backs Trade for Sandy Alcántara?

The Diamondbacks have a clear mandate to improve their starting rotation this offseason. One pitcher that could be available on the trade market is the Miami Marlins' Sandy Alcántara.

The National League's 2022 Cy Young Award winner came back from Tommy John surgery in 2025 to uneven results. His 5.36 ERA was the third-worst among qualified starting pitchers. At first glance, it seems like a bad trade for the D-backs to pursue if they're looking for a rotation upgrade.

However, the full-season numbers don't tell the full story. Alcántara rebounded in the second half of 2025, pitching to a 3.33 ERA/3.89 FIP in 83.2 innings. That has improved his trade value, and the Marlins should capitalize. With the D-backs' need to acquire starting pitching this winter, they could be a possible trade target.

Why the D-backs Should Trade for Sandy Alcántara

Simply put, it's a chance to upgrade the ceiling of their starting rotation at a cheaper cost than free agency. The D-backs need to acquire at least one veteran starter to anchor their rotation in 2026.

It's possible to take the second half and project that as the new normal. He was further removed from surgery, his velo ticked up a little, and the command drastically improved. His strikeout rate after the All-Star break was at 22.3% compared to just a 4.0% walk rate.

Alcántara is entering the final year of his contract in 2026, earning $17.3 million. He has a club option valued at $21 million, with a $2 million buyout. A pitcher with similar upside will command a contract north of $30 million per season in free agency. So there's the upside of two years of a top-of-the-rotation arm for $38.3 million, but at a significant trade cost.

Unless Alcántara completely implodes, this is a good value deal for the D-backs. While the results were inconsistent, he still features premium velocity. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH and his sinker 97.2 MPH in 2025. In the second half, they bumped up to 97.8 and 97.4.

When healthy, Alcántara is a capable innings eater. He's posted at least 28 starts and 174 innings in four of the last five seasons. Not only has he provided consistent length, the innings have been quality. Since 2021, he's posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 119.

Why the D-backs Should Consider Someone Else

You can make the argument that Alcántara has not been a top-of-the-rotation starter since his Cy Young season. In 2023-25, he's posted a 4.73 ERA (96 ERA+) with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.0% walk rate. By entertaining this deal, the D-backs are expecting that he reverts to his 2022 form. That's not a given, considering he's coming off major elbow surgery and wasn't elite in his previous healthy season.

The player cost for Alcántara in a trade will be high, even with his up-and-down 2025 season. If the Marlins put him on the trade block, they're going to want players who can improve their lineup in 2026. The D-backs lack that type of prospect in their system, so they'd have to trade out of their lineup.

That may be too high a cost for a pitcher the team doesn't have a lot of certainty in. The underlying metrics for Alcántara weren't great in 2025, as he yielded a .271 xBA, .445 xSLG, and a 4.60 xERA. The expected metrics not only factor in his strikeout (19.1%) and walk (7.7%) rates, but also the exit velocity and launch angle of each ball put into play against him.

While the strikeout and walk rates drastically improved in the second half, there are quality of contact concerns to address. His ground ball rate, which was over 50% in his previous four healthy seasons, was 46.6% in 2025. It improved slightly in the second half, up to 47.5%, but it barely alleviated any concerns.

If the D-backs want to go with more certainty with their 2026 rotation, a Merrill Kelly reunion is a safer bet but with a lower payoff. However, given the upside that Alcántara can bring at his top form, it may be a risk worth gambling over.

A Potential Sandy Alcántara Trade to Arizona

• D-backs Get: RHP Sandy Alcántara, INF Otto Lopez
• Marlins Get: 2B Ketel Marte

Long story short, the D-backs lack the organizational surplus in their farm system to facilitate a deal. They're going to have to take it on the chin, having to trade one of their star players. There isn't a trade proposal that could convince GM Mike Hazen to part with Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, or Gabriel Moreno this offseason.

So that leaves Ketel Marte as the piece the D-backs would have to include to make this trade happen. Marte has more value than Alcántara, so it wouldn't be a 1-for-1 swap.

Arizona should demand the inclusion of Otto Lopez in the deal. Lopez has four years of control remaining and should immediately slot in as the team's starting second baseman. While he's nowhere close to the hitter that Marte is, his defensive value can make up for that somewhat. In 1119.2 career innings at the keystone, Lopez has been worth +15 defensive runs saved, +22 outs above average, and +15 fielding run value.

Don't let his 86 wRC+ in 2025 fool you; Lopez is a much more potent hitter than the bottom-line production numbers say. His expected stats reflect that, as he posted a .279 xBA, .447 xSLG, and .339 xwOBA. If he can repeat his batted ball metrics from 2025, he'll be a useful hitter in the bottom half of the lineup.

For the Marlins, the offensive upgrade from Lopez to Marte is notable (86 wRC+ to 145), but they'd lack a capable shortstop. Understandably, they may balk at the inclusion of Lopez over Edwards (+9 OAA since moving to 2B). However, Edwards has much weaker expected stats than Lopez with the bat, making him a less appealing trade target for Arizona.

From a salary standpoint, the D-backs would take on an additional $2 million for 2026. That would put them at $136 million, giving them space to make a significant bullpen addition in free agency.

It's the type of deal where Hazen has to be 100% certain that Alcántara is the missing piece this rotation needs. If this doesn't work, both Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo will be dismissed after the 2026 season.