On the surface, this is a trade that might not register for most fans. However, a deeper dive suggests that D-backs GM Mike Hazen might have found a hidden gem out of the Orioles bullpen.

Trading Alexander for Strowd already is a good move in a 1-for-1 swap. Add in two lottery ticket prospects, with one of them having clear MLB upside, and it could be another Hazen masterclass.

My initial grade of the trade is a B+, but it can easily be revised into an A. Strowd turning into a backend reliever makes it an A. But if Aracena turns into another useful arm, it may be Hazen’s best trade since landing Zac Gallen.

Why Hazen Traded Blaze Alexander

While Alexander’s personality made him a fan favorite, there were clear concerns about his ability to stick in MLB. His WAR metrics are inflated by his defensive value, especially on Baseball Reference. BR credits Alexander with +7 fielding runs but +1 Outs Above Average. The D-backs’ internal metrics tend to lean closer to Statcast, which explains the Nolan Arenado acquisition.

Another point against Alexander is the lack of viability against right-handers. He owns a career slash line of .219/.296/.327 and a 77 wRC+. That lowers his value quite a lot, as he’s only playable against left-handers. Instead of a potential everyday player, he’s more of a utility infielder who can play second and third base at a high level.

Add in that he’s out of options, and it hurts the D-backs’ roster flexibility. Arizona has plenty of utility infielders to consider in Tim Tawa, Jordan Lawlar, and Ildemaro Vargas. All of them can easily replace Alexander’s production at a similar salary.

Building a bullpen has been a bugaboo for Hazen, as he enters his 10th season running the D-backs. But one area where he’s found some success is the trade market. Paul Sewald and A.J. Puk are notable examples, although he had to pay up the wazoo for Sewald in 2023.

The D-backs bullpen entering 2026 doesn’t have any relievers with a strong pedigree as a leverage reliever. However, there are a handful of pitchers who have the raw stuff for that role. Strowd is in that group. If he can build upon a successful first year in 2025, he could be a long-term bridge option to closer Justin Martinez.

Kade Strowd Might Be the Nastiest D-backs Reliever

Strowd debuted with the Orioles in 2025. He pitched to a 1.71 ERA with a 22.9% strikeout rate. However, it also came with a 12.4% walk rate, suggesting there is room for improvement.

One thing that Strowd brings is a deep arsenal of pitches. He utilizes a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, sweeper, and curveball. Here’s a look at his pitch plot on Baseball Savant.

The biggest thing Strowd does well is suppressing the quality of contact against him. That shows up in his expected metrics. The right-hander is yielding a .192 xBA and 2.80 xERA despite a middling strikeout rate and an elevated walk rate.

He induces ground balls at a 56.7% rate. He’s also giving up weak contact, with only 31.3% of the batted balls against him registering an exit velocity north of 95 MPH. The high ground ball rate and low exit velocities also translate to a microscopic 1.3% barrel rate.

There is more room to add strikeouts to his profile. Strowd induces chases on 30.6% of pitches that land outside the strike zone and gets whiffs on 26.8% of swings. Better command and sequencing should unlock that.

From a bullpen construction standpoint, Strowd is easily one of the D-backs’ top eight relievers. He does more to move the needle forward for Arizona than Alexander at this point. Since the two players are minimum-salary players, the trade has no impact on 2026 payroll.

Add in that there are six years of control remaining, the D-backs will get the best innings out of Strowd’s career.

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It’s usually a good sign when a top prospect gets a camp invite. That typically means the organization wants to evaluate them as potential additions to the big league roster. Some prospects will have a chance to break camp on the Opening Day roster.

The most recent example is infielder Blaze Alexander, who hit .400 in Spring Training to win the backup shortstop job in 2024. I had him as the D-backs’ No. 25 prospect going into that season.

We’ll take a look at some candidates who could accomplish that feat in 2026. Since there are a lot of potential relievers on my prospect list, I’ve elected to break this into two pieces. Otherwise, this newsletter will be longer than Michael Soroka’s injury history since 2020.

OF Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 1)

Ryan Waldschmidt should be deep into the starting left field mix. The D-backs have yet to make any additions to the outfield, the sole transaction being a trade of Jake McCarthy to the Rockies. That opens the window for Waldschmidt to steal the left field job.

The D-backs’ consensus top prospect has only played one full season in the minor leagues. That brings some questions about his readiness, but those won’t be answered until he takes a Cactus League at-bat. But at the same time, his viability as the club’s left fielder is in the same boat until his fate is decided.

Arizona could stand to benefit if Waldschmidt is ready earlier than expected. He’s a consensus Top 100 prospect on Baseball America (48), MLB (59), and ESPN (63). That makes him one of 98 prospects eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. That puts the D-backs in position to gain draft picks, but that’s easier said than done.

While Waldschmidt is a consensus Top 100 prospect, he’s closer to the bottom than the top. My grade on the outfielder is a 55 FV, which translates to around 2.5-3.5 WAR. I have him as a 20-homer, 20-steal hitter that will likely produce a .260/.350/.460 slash line.

I think the D-backs should give Waldschmidt a fair chance to win the left field job over Jorge Barrosa, Blaze Alexander, and Jordan Lawlar. Barrosa profiles more as a fourth outfielder, and Lawlar has one minor league option remaining. If he looks overmatched vs. big league pitchers in March, they can always have him get another 200-250 plate appearances in Reno, then re-evaluate.

2B/OF Tommy Troy (No. 2)

Tommy Troy is in a bit of an interesting situation. He’s momentarily blocked at second base by Ketel Marte, so the D-backs experimented with him in the outfield late in the 2025 season. Troy played some games in center field with Amarillo and Reno down the stretch.

With the D-backs relying on their infield surplus for outfield depth, it will be survival of the fittest. Troy has to compete with Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, and Ryan Waldschmidt for playing time in Arizona’s outfield. With the team relying on internal depth, one of the four players will be their left fielder on Opening Day.

Troy doesn’t carry a high ceiling compared to other bats in the system, but rather a strong floor. He’s a surefire regular at second base and is the type of player who will squeeze every bit of talent he has into production. Having interviewed Troy multiple times in the Arizona Fall League in 2024, it’s pretty clear he’s the type of player who loves baseball and loves the grind of a season. It’s perhaps why he’s consistently improved every year since setting foot on Stanford.

Should Troy not make the Opening Day roster, he’s in a similar boat as Waldschmidt. Injuries and performances will dictate when he debuts with the D-backs this season, although it seems sooner rather than later. He’s already got a healthy sample size in Reno (38 games and 162 plate appearances) to evaluate. Assuming further improvement, he’s going to keep banging on the door until GM Mike Hazen has to answer it.

LHP Kohl Drake (No. 7)

Kohl Drake needs injuries to a couple of pitchers in front of him, but it’s enough to consider him a possibility. Drake was one of three pitchers that came to Arizona at the trade deadline for Merrill Kelly. Of the three pitchers, the left-hander is the most MLB-ready.

Drake was added to the D-backs’ 40-man roster in November. I personally have him as their No. 7 starter going into camp. Beyond their starting five of Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Michael Soroka. Soroka and Rodríguez have lengthy enough injury histories, so there could be a path to a rotation spot for Drake this spring.

Drake profiles more as a No. 4 starter. His four-seamer and sinker average just above 93 MPH from Triple-A pitch data. That’s right around the MLB average for a left-handed pitcher. He utilizes a curveball, slider, and a changeup as his secondaries.

He dominated his way through Double-A, putting up a 31.8% rate with Frisco. Drake was promoted to Triple-A just before the trade, then made a handful of starts with Reno before a minor shoulder injury ended his season.

It’s only a matter of time before Drake gets a major league look. The reality is the D-backs will need eight or more starters to get through the season. Injuries will open the door for him to pitch. With a healthy rotation coming out of spring, he’s more likely to be Reno’s Opening Day starter.

RHP Cristian Mena (No. 16)

Cristian Mena is in an interesting spot. The right-hander has seen his last two seasons cut short by arm injuries. However, he may be the D-backs’ first man up should injuries strike the rotation.

In parts of two seasons, Mena has appeared in four games (one start). In 2025, he made three appearances. He pitched to a 1.35 ERA with eight strikeouts and three walks over 6.2 innings. His best game came against the Dodgers on May 9th, when he held LA’s potent lineup scoreless for 3.2 innings. Arizona eventually came back from an 8-3 deficit to take an 11-8 lead that the bullpen eventually blew.

Mena has the type of stuff that could play in a bullpen, but he’s more valuable as a starter right now. In addition to mid-90s velocity on a four-seamer and sinker, he utilizes a curveball, sweeper, and a changeup. The curveball is more akin to a deathball slider, sitting at 88.2 MPH with -1.2” induced vertical break and 1.4” glove-side break.

His four-seamer, curveball, and slider combination is already a strong enough mix for Mena to be a backend reliever. Should he fail to crack the rotation, Arizona could look into that possibility. The team is sorely missing power arms, and Mena is too talented to stash in Reno anymore. In fact, I have him as the one prospect who has the best chance of breaking camp with the club.

SS Jose Fernandez (No. 28)

Like Drake, Jose Fernandez was a recent addition to Arizona’s 40-man roster. Despite Geraldo Perdomo breaking out as an MVP candidate in 2025, the D-backs are thin on shortstop depth. That could be why the team elected to add Fernandez instead of risking losing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Fernandez is no threat to unseat Perdomo at the shortstop position. But rather, he could serve as the ideal fill-in should injuries strike. With his 40-man clock already started, the D-backs should have him compete for a utility role. His past experience at first and third base should give him more coverage. That will put him in competition with veteran infielder Ildemaro Vargas, with his ability to play shortstop being an advantage.

He’s only 22, so there may be more power coming out of the bat. The power began to emerge with Amarillo, slugging 17 home runs in 511 plate appearances. His .183 ISO was a career-high, and his batted ball data suggests someone who can hit for more power. If his ground ball rate drops below 45% and his walk rate improves, he’s going to outgrow his utility projection. In that scenario, he might give LuJames Groover a run for his money as the heir apparent at third base.

Further Prospect Notes

Adding some notes on prospects added to camp that I didn’t dive into.

• Daniel Eagen (No. 3) being invited to camp is a good sign for him. The right-hander has a more vertical approach to attacking hitters with a four-seamer, curveball, and a deathball slider. All three of those pitches have very little horizontal break. He added a splitter in 2025 for an arm-side pitch, but I wonder if he should work on a cutter for a glove-side look.

• Cristofer Torin (No. 15) has a big year ahead of him. While he’s blocked at shortstop by Perdomo, he was ranked the best defensive infielder in the system by Nick Piecoro. He’s almost certain to be a 40-man roster addition in November as Arizona’s best shortstop prospect.

• Left-handers Spencer Giesting (No. 33) and Yu-Min Lin (No. 34) could serve as rotation depth options. However, I’m not particularly bullish on either arm lasting in a rotation. Both pitchers are reliever conversion candidates once the trio of Daniel Eagen, David Hagaman, and Ashton Izzi reaches Reno. Both pitchers sit around 90 MPH with a fastball, but have fantastic sweepers.

• Ivan Melendez (No. 36) finally broke the seal in his third year in Amarillo, finally reaching Reno. Given Arizona’s lack of long-term options at first base, he’s still an interesting option. The team is looking for a right-handed bat to play first base, and Melendez fits that profile. Interestingly enough, he didn’t have major platoon splits in the minors last season.

• Kristian Robinson (No. 38) also ended the 2025 season with Reno. While I’m less concerned about the swing-and-miss, his quality of contact takes center stage. From the Arizona Fall League and Reno batted ball data, Robinson has a tendency to beat the ball into the ground. He has arguably the fastest bat in Arizona’s system, on par with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte (maybe Ivan Melendez once I get those marks). He’s also a candidate for the left field role, but I’m less bullish on him sticking than Waldschmidt.

However, a fun exercise would be to project who the D-backs’ top prospect will be a year from now. A lot can happen in a major league season, as player development is often non-linear to begin with.

For this exercise, I’m projecting these two prospects to graduate.

• LF Ryan Waldschmidt

• 2B Tommy Troy

Waldschmidt and Troy are my top two prospects in Arizona’s system. Both players project as major league regulars at their respective positions. I have Waldschmidt winning the starting left field job out of camp and Troy getting a call-up midseason as an injury replacement. Given Ketel Marte’s documented hamstring issues, it’s not a question of if, but when in the 2026 season.

Other top prospects that I project to graduate include LHP Kohl Drake, LHP Brandyn Garcia, and RHP Cristian Mena.

Without further ado, here are five candidates for the top prospect slot in the D-backs system in 2027.

OF Slade Caldwell

Slade Caldwell is the most obvious candidate. He has the most room to grow of all the D-backs’ position player prospects. While he doesn’t possess the lofty ceiling that Druw Jones has in center field, he carries a much higher floor.

Caldwell is a very selective hitter, too selective at times. Per The Athletic’s Keith Law, the 2024 first-rounder carried a 15% chase rate and a 56% in-zone swing rate. That isn’t necessarily a death sentence if he has a truly discerning eye at the plate. One such example is Geraldo Perdomo, who carried a 19% chase rate and a 57% zone swing rate.

You can argue whether it’s unfair to compare Caldwell’s approach to that of one of the most disciplined hitters in MLB. But it serves as an example of an MLB hitter with similar chase and zone swing rates being successful.

2026 will be a big year for Caldwell. With plus-plus speed, the key will be for him to hit the ball in the air. His ground ball rate with High-A Hillsboro was 53.5%. With such a high ground ball rate, there is considerable risk that it’ll significantly handicap his offensive ceiling like Alek Thomas. His offensive strengths play perfectly into Chase Field’s deep gaps, if he can spray line drives.

There’s still time, as Caldwell is unlikely to sniff the major leagues in 2026. Instead, he’s looking at a late-2027 ETA. Once he shows more consistency in applying count leverage (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1 counts) to slug the baseball, it should be a fast track to the majors. A good year will include a midseason promotion to Double-A Amarillo, and possibly a late-season run with Triple-A Reno.

Like Jones, he projects well defensively in center field. While not the plus-plus defender the 2022 first-rounder is, Law still rates Caldwell as a plus defender in center field. With Jones having bigger questions with his whole swing operation, the 19-year-old could have a chance to establish himself as Arizona’s center fielder of the future.

3B LuJames Groover III

The D-backs acquired a bridge between Eugenio Suárez and LuJames Groover III this offseason. Arizona’s trade for Nolan Arenado allows Groover to develop at a steady rate in 2026, while also giving some protection if he’s not ready to take over in 2027.

There’s no question about Groover’s ability to hit. From a raw hit tool perspective, he’s right up there with anyone in the D-backs system. However, there are concerns about his ability to slug based on his Arizona Fall League batted-ball data and 2025 results.

While he won a Southern League batting title with a .309 average, he only slugged .434 and launched 12 home runs despite being healthy all year.

Groover cut his ground ball rate in 2025, but also did the same with his fly ball rate. Considering it coincided with more balls being hit to the center of the diamond instead of pulled, it was translating into more singles. That’s a clear indication of why his slugging and his park-adjusted metrics (120 wRC+) took a slight drop.

His 2025 results suggest that Groover could be a high on-base (.399 OBP), 40 doubles, and 15 home run hitter. That inherently isn’t bad, as he carried a 14.4% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. But it does add pressure to his ability to stick at third base.

The D-backs played Groover exclusively at third base. That’s an indication they feel stronger about his ability to stick there. He should get a cup of coffee toward the end of 2026, but could earn the starting role as early as 2027.

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With a little bit of hindsight, it was pretty obvious from the onset that the Diamondbacks were handicapped financially entering the offseason. Injuries to Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. limited what they could do. The quartet combined for $53.6 million of Arizona’s 209.2 million payroll for 2026 (Cots), or 25.6%.

With injuries completely decimating the pitching staff, which will linger into 2026, D-backs GM Mike Hazen had some tough decisions to make. He chose to address the rotation and third base this offseason, at the expense of the bullpen.

If you look at his MLB additions in the offseason, here’s how they went.

• RHP Merrill Kelly: 2 years, $40MM plus 2028 vesting option

• RHP Michael Soroka: 1 year, $7.5MM plus $2MM more in incentives

• 3B Nolan Arenado: Arizona is responsible for $11MM over the next 2 years

• RHP Taylor Clarke: 1 year, $1.55MM

In total, the club added about $34MM in payroll for the 2026 season. It wasn’t the perfect offseason, but that wasn’t going to happen anyway.

Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick was on Burns & Gambo back in September to explain the payroll situation. Kendrick stated that their payroll will be less than the $220 million figure from 2025, but still be competitive.

There are still two more possible moves the team can make before the season starts, according to Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro.

1. Trade for a reliever

2. Sign a right-handed-hitting first baseman

As we head toward the start of a new season, I examine the big stories of the week and why things played out the way they did in the offseason.

Why Hazen Chose to Address the Rotation First

Without a doubt, the starting rotation was the most pressing need to address for Hazen. The D-backs entered the offseason with three healthy starters with any sort of track record: Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodríguez. Both Pfaadt and Rodríguez were especially bad in 2025, posting ERAs north of 5.00. So without a doubt, the rotation had to be addressed before moving on to other things.

Hazen had to replace two starters from his 2025 rotation: Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. He brought back Kelly and added Michael Soroka. Between the two pitchers, that’s a total of $27.5 million in guarantees, nearly 80% of the payroll they added this offseason.

Soroka could be an upside play if he can stay on the mound. The problem is he carries an injury history that’s certain to keep Ryan DiPanfilo busy. The 89.2 innings he pitched in 2025 were the most since his rookie campaign (2019), when he threw 174.2 innings.

With the injury histories of both Rodríguez and Soroka, the D-backs are still one player away from disaster. Their depth options don’t carry much MLB experience, with Cristian Mena being the only starter with any. But one start and 6.2 innings might not be enough.

The D-backs are certainly monitoring Gallen’s free agency situation. Signing him would require Kendrick to green-light further spending. There is precedent for such a move, as they did the same with Jordan Montgomery in 2024. Should Gallen fail to find any offers of three or more years, a reunion could be possible.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden listed Arizona as a frontrunner to re-sign Gallen. But that could be a moot point if the D-backs don’t feel he’s worth the cost. They extended a qualifying offer, but that was before signing Kelly and Soroka. I think it’s a situation where Hazen addresses the other stuff, then circles back to Gallen if he’s still around and Kendrick approves extra expenditure.

That may also be why the team was willing to listen to Ketel Marte. One clear demand in any potential trade was a controllable starter plus more pieces. That’s an ask that teams looking to add Marte felt too uncomfortable moving, so a trade never happened.

Rotation Needs Overshadowed Bullpen

The bullpen might have been the second-biggest priority. However, as stated above, the rotation required so much focus that they didn’t have the budget to sign a closer. That’s the tradeoff a small to mid-market team like the D-backs has to make.

The D-backs aren’t the Dodgers, who have seemingly unlimited resources compared to the rest of the league. Arizona is limited by the amount of revenue it generated in the previous season. BrooksGate had the D-backs spending the fifth-largest percentage of their 2024 revenue in 2025 payroll (66.7%).

“We don’t have a lot of guys ready to step into our rotation,” Hazen told The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro. “If I had spent $15 million on one of those good bullpen arms, I wouldn’t have Merrill Kelly.”

The going rate for a late-inning arm is $10MM+ per season, with 12 relievers signing a contract to that yearly average. There were still some arms available after signing Kelly and Soroka, but it didn’t take long for them to go. Pete Fairbanks went to the Marlins, and Seranthony Domínguez recently signed with the Chicago White Sox. They also checked in on Pierce Johnson, but were quickly priced out of his market as well.

Arizona did sign one pitcher, but that was Taylor Clarke. Clarke put together some solid metrics in 2025, adding a sinker that made him more effective against right-handed hitters. He’s not a back-of-the-bullpen arm, but should be someone who gives the club solid innings at a reasonable cost of $1.55MM.

Jonathan Loáisiga is the other big name they added, albeit on a minor league deal. Loáisiga is another pitcher that will keep DiPanfilo busy, making just 50 appearances since 2023. However, he features an electric arsenal that could make him a candidate to pitch in the late innings if he has a good camp.

It’s looking more like it will be the spaghetti method with the bullpen. Hazen added a lot of intriguing reliever prospects at the deadline. Two other arms to keep an eye on are Yilber Díaz and Drey Jameson. If healthy and throwing strikes, they have as much upside as any other arm in the bullpen.

The most likely route they take is trading an infielder or an infield prospect to land another potential reliever. The organization is particularly deep at second base, carrying a legitimate prospect at all four full-season levels of their minor league system.

“The bullpen market isn’t done,” Hazen told Piecoro. “There are trades out there. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I don’t think this is a dead position as it relates to what we’re doing moving forward.”

For now, the unit has to be able to tread water until they get Puk and Martinez back. It’s a tough pill to swallow, since they put up the fourth-worst ERA (4.82) and recorded the fewest shutdowns (115) in 2025. But that’s the situation they find themselves in.

Kevin Ginkel and Loáisiga will likely get the first crack at the closer role. Other potential options include Díaz and Saalfrank. Hazen seems pretty confident some pitchers will emerge from that unit. His track record with that unit warrants further skepticism until the results show otherwise.

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Since the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in the 2023 NLDS, Los Angeles has shown how deep their pockets are. With Shohei Ohtani hitting free agency, they splurged on a 10-year, $700 million contract that’s heavily deferred, as if that matters. With the best player in the sport under their payroll, they’ve decided to protect that investment by shattering spending records.

Two years into the Dodgers’ Ohtani era, you can’t argue with the results. They’ve won back-to-back championships, despite close calls against the Padres (2024) and Blue Jays (2025). They became the first team with a $400 million CBT payroll in 2025, and appeared primed to do so again in 2026.

With their moves this offseason, the Dodgers appeared primed for a three-peat. While they’ll be blamed for the impending lockout, they are merely one symptom of the problem.

Arizona Sports Radio Host Puts Cheapstake MLB Owners on Blast

Arizona Sports radio host Dan Bickley devoted his Bickley Blast rant for January 16 to the Dodgers and Tucker.

“The Dodgers have ruined baseball! Their starting lineup looks like something you see at an All-Star Game. They are the loophole dynasty, spending over $1 billion of deferred money to create the biggest financial crisis in the history of baseball.

“At least, that’s what I’m supposed to think. But there’s another side to the story, folks. Because two-thirds of Major League Baseball, 20 of 30 owners, spend less than 50% of their revenue on payroll. Both teams in Chicago spend 36% or less. And all the cheapskate owners who are railing about the system, and who will soon vote to lock out the players, are doing so to protect their own miserly nature.

“And at times like this, I once again feel immense pride for the Diamondbacks. Because they have a general manager (Mike Hazen) who will not spend one minute feeling sorry for himself. Because their three-game sweep of the Dodgers in the 2023 postseason is what triggered all of this madness in the first place. And because the Diamondbacks spend 67% of their revenue on payroll, which ranks fifth in Major League Baseball. Which means in a climate conducive for owners to not compete, to cry poor and skim from the till, Ken Kendrick is giving it his best shot. Even though he has little chance of winning the division he shares with the Dodgers, which I respect immensely.”

While Bickley attributes their embarrassing postseason losses within the division in back-to-back seasons as the cause, that isn’t 100% true. What’s got the Dodgers going is that the most gifted player in baseball on their payroll became available, and they want to win with it. Because winning it all is the ultimate advertisement. With Ohtani, they have become arguably the biggest global brand in MLB.

What’s Wrong With Baseball?

The Dodgers will get the lion’s share of the blame for a lockout, but all they’ve done is exploit a loophole in the system. It’s no different than how Jerry Colangelo built the Diamondbacks from scratch. He took on so much debt, which the rules allowed him to at the time, to win a World Series championship in 2001. As they say, “Flags Fly Forever.”

What the Dodgers have done instead is exploit the fact that the majority of MLB owners are cheapskates. Like Bickley, I respect Ken Kendrick’s willingness to spend relative to revenues and Hazen’s creativity to try to make it work. The Diamondbacks do not financially compete with the Dodgers. Even with record payrolls in 2024-25, it’s only half of what their division rivals put out.

Other than the Diamondbacks, there are a small handful of small-market clubs trying to win. The Milwaukee Brewers serve as the best example, although they were squashed by the Evil Empire in a non-competitive NLCS. The Brewers’ ability to maximize a player’s skill sets is valuable, which is why a big-market club like the Mets poached David Stearns. New York was hoping that Stearns could have a similar impact for them as Andrew Friedman has had for the Dodgers, but it hasn’t worked out.

Baseball is slowly turning into a situation where it’s the haves vs. the have-nots. That doesn’t make the game any more exciting for fans of the have-not teams. If MLB turns into a “pay-to-win” game, which obviously commissioner Rob Manfred doesn’t care about as long as franchise values keep going up, it disenfranchises fans. They may instead move to different sports or different forms of entertainment with their time.

A lockout isn’t the answer to baseball’s woes. But I’m not going to confidently say I know what it is either. But when there’s a clear revenue and spending disparity between teams, it throws off the competitive balance of the game.

From my vantage point as a disgraced Diamondbacks beat writer, it’s clear to me both MLB owners and the union are more concerned with getting theirs vs. the health of the sport. Here’s to a great 2026 season and hopefully not a protracted labor dispute that could hurt the sport afterward.

Ep. 15 Topics:

• Full breakdown of the Nolan Arenado trade and why the Diamondbacks paid a small price for the veteran infielder (1:09)

• Where youngsters Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander fit in the Diamondbacks lineup (9:51)

• Where Jonathan Loaisiga and Taylor Clarke potentially fit in the Diamondbacks 2026 bullpen (20:06)

• What’s left for the Diamondbacks to do this offseason (29:24)

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More D-backs Coverage

• Nolan Arenado Trade Changes Diamondbacks’ Infield Situation for 2026

• Diamondbacks Keep Ketel Marte After Shopping Him in the Offseason

• Merrill Kelly Returns to Arizona: D-backs’ Rotation Upgraded

• D-backs Under Review YouTube Channel

Michael McDermott is the founder and publisher of the D-backs Under Review newsletter. He’s covered the Arizona Diamondbacks and their farm system for multiple web publications since 2015. Michael has covered 50 MLB games as credentialed media at Chase Field and four seasons of the Arizona Fall League.

The first major move was acquiring third baseman Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. The deal allows Arenado to spend the next two years in Arizona, where he lives in the offseason. He’s spent at least a decade on the other side of Salt River Fields, from his time with the Colorado Rockies.

The Diamondbacks didn’t pay much to land Arenado. They gave up a lottery ticket prospect in Jack Martinez and are only responsible for $11 million over the next two years. That is likely due to Arenado’s full no-trade clause, plus 10-and-5 rights, which negated any potential leverage the Cardinals might have had otherwise.

Diamondbacks Infield Situation Following Nolan Arenado Trade

Arenado is coming off the worst season of his career. He slashed just .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs and an 84 wRC+ in 107 games. The 34-year-old has seen his power significantly decline over the past three seasons despite solid contact rates. Hazen mentioned stabilizing the infield defense as a key priority this offseason.

While he’s no longer the elite defender and MVP candidate he was five years ago, he still provides value to the Diamondbacks. He is still a good defender at third base (+6 DRS/+3 OAA) and adds a leadership element to the clubhouse that was lacking in 2025.

Hazen seems to be banking on a rejuvenation for the future Hall of Famer, now that he’s gone from a rebuilding club in St. Louis to one that hopes to contend in Arizona. He’s probably not a 140-start guy at third base at this stage of his career due to his poor numbers vs. right-handed pitching. Arenado still hit lefties decently enough, with a .294/.339/.402 (102 wRC+) in 2025.

Here’s the Diamondbacks' likely starting infield:

• First Base: Pavin Smith/RHH platoon

• Second Base: Ketel Marte

• Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo

• Third Base: Nolan Arenado

Veteran infielder Ildemaro Vargas is a candidate for a bench role, especially as a complement to Arenado at third. Arenado is likely starting 110-120 games, with some games at DH mixed in. Hazen pushed back a little on the idea of Marte getting more reps there. Against lefties, it could be a mix-and-match situation with Marte, Arenado, and Gabriel Moreno there to keep their bats in the lineup.

Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander’s Future with the Diamondbacks

Assuming Arenado is the primary starter at third base, that leaves questions for the fate of both Blaze Alexander and Jordan Lawlar. Alexander is out of options entering the 2026 season, while Lawlar has just one remaining.

Both infielders had previous opportunities to carve out a role. Given the current state of the roster, no bigger opportunity exists than the one in front of them. While Arizona’s is strong 1-4, they need at least one of the two to step up to lengthen the lineup. That, in turn, should allow them to be more productive offensively as a team and grind down the opposing starter quicker.

Hazen clearly indicated that both young infielders will get reps in the outfield. Alexander played some games in both left and center field at the tail-end of the 2025 season. It’s unclear how his shortstop defense looks after a disastrous run there in 2024, but he could be a super utility option if it’s improved. He’s also a candidate to play third when Arenado needs a day off or is starting at DH.

With a thin outfield, especially following the Jake McCarthy trade, there should be more opportunities for both young infielders to play more regularly. While Lawlar’s option gives the Diamondbacks some flexibility, the former top prospect has nothing left to prove in Reno.

The Diamondbacks have a completely open spot in left field. Alexander is tentatively projected as the starter according to Roster Resource. With Alek Thomas relegated to mostly a platoon role, both infielders will play against left-handed pitchers. The only question is who plays center field.

Arenado Forms Bridge to D-backs Top Prospect at Third Base

Arenado is under contract for two more seasons, which forms a successful bridge to top prospect LuJames Groover III. Groover moved around the infield in his first year in the organization, but played exclusively at third base with Amarillo in 2025.

The 2025 Southern League batting champion is ticketed for Triple-A Reno to start the 2026 season. His ETA could be tied to Arenado’s health, depending on the severity. Alexander, Lawlar, or Vargas could fill in for a short-term absence; a long-term one could lead to Groover’s 40-man clock starting.

Groover will be on Arizona’s 40-man roster no later than November. It’s unlikely the organization leaves him unprotected, although they have a lot of decisions ahead with their prospects.

Groover has one of the best hit tools in the Diamondbacks organization. From his time in the Arizona Fall League, I noticed his ability to spray the ball from line-to-line with authority. However, the power has been slow to develop. Most of his contact in the AFL was low-liners, with launch angles in the 8-19° range. Making more contact in the 20-30° range should help improve his home run power.

Other than Groover, the Diamondbacks don’t have many prospects at third base. Jansel Luis got some run there in the Arizona Fall League in 2025 after playing primarily second base. Yassel Soler and Enyervert Perez both project as 1B/DH types.

More D-backs Coverage

• Diamondbacks Keep Ketel Marte After Shopping Him in the Offseason

• Merrill Kelly Returns to Arizona: D-backs’ Rotation Upgraded

• D-backs Under Review YouTube Channel

Michael McDermott is the founder and publisher of D-backs Under Review. He’s covered the Arizona Diamondbacks and their farm system for multiple publications since 2015. Michael has covered 50 MLB games as credentialed media at Chase Field and four seasons of the Arizona Fall League.

Michael McDermott breaks down this decision, the impact it had on Alex Bregman’s market, a trade the Diamondbacks made over the weekend, and the underlying concern for the 2026 team on the latest D-backs Under Review podcast episode.

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Time Stamps

0:00 - Introduction & CTAs
1:43 - Diamondbacks Shut Down Ketel Marte Trade Talks
9:30 - Wrapping Up the Alex Bregman to Diamondbacks Rumors
17:33 - Jake McCarthy Traded to the Colorado Rockies
27:11 - Diamondbacks Bullpen Primary Concern for 2026
35:19 - Outro

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports reported that D-backs general manager Mike Hazen has told Marte of the situation.

With Marte remaining with the D-backs for 2026, his 10-and-5 rights will kick in on April 6th. With 10 years of MLB service time and at least five years with his current club, he cannot be traded without his approval.

He’s under contract for the next five seasons at $91 million, plus an $11.5 million player option for 2031. So there’s the possibility Marte plays the next six seasons for a total of $102.5 million, with $46 million of it deferred to 2035 and later.

What We Know About Ketel Marte Trade Rumors

The ask for Marte was at least an established starting pitcher plus multiple high-level pieces. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported that the D-backs were seeking multiple high-level prospects. Talks with the Tampa Bay Rays involved Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot, according to The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro. Reports from Boston suggested that the Diamondbacks would inquire about infielder Marcelo Mayer in talks.

Ultimately, regardless of what was discussed over the past two months, the offers did not come close to Hazen’s liking.

"It never ended up getting that close," Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. "Just sort of reaffirming what I've been saying the entire offseason, like my expectation was this wasn't going to happen. I felt like I had to do my job just to listen to what people had to say. He's a superstar player for us, and has been for a long time, and is going to continue to be."

Bregman Signs Massive Deal with Cubs

The Diamondbacks were linked to free-agent infielder Alex Bregman due to him living in Arizona during the offseason. The idea never made sense, as a Marte trade was a prerequisite to them signing Bregman. Unless Arizona got the perfect deal, they weren’t going to move their second baseman.

Bregman’s camp willingly waited until Arizona decided what to do with their star second baseman. Within 48 hours of Hazen informing reporters that they would hold on to Marte, he landed a five-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, $70 million of that deal is deferred. That lowers the present-day value to $30-31 million. It’s unlikely the D-backs would have matched that price.

The combination of trading Marte and signing Bregman never made sense for Arizona financially. Marte’s $14.6 million-per-year deal is a steal for his production, less than half what Bregman got in the market. Ultimately, it was a situation that might have worked out in the Diamondbacks’ favor.

Jake McCarthy Traded for a Prospect

While Marte was not traded this weekend, another player was. Outfielder Jake McCarthy has been dealt to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for pitching prospect Josh Grosz.

McCarthy gets a fresh start with the Rockies, while the D-backs picked up a lottery ticket starting pitcher. Grosz was one of the two pitchers Colorado acquired in the Ryan McMahon trade with the Yankees at the trade deadline. His first start in the Rockies’ organization came against the D-backs’ High-A affiliate (Hillsboro Hops). Grosz allowed five runs on eight hits, two walks, and two strikeouts.

McCarthy agreed to a $1.525 million deal in his first year under arbitration. He turned in a rough 2025 season in which he lost the center field job to Alek Thomas after a 3-for-41 start to the season. Following a demotion to Reno, he put up a .236/.267/.406 slash. FanGraphs rated his offense to be 18% below the average hitter with an 82 wRC+.

Expected stats believe McCarthy’s post-demotion run is worth playing, with a .260 xBA and a .405 xSLG. However, there were some plate discipline concerns as well. McCarthy swung at 34.7% of pitches out of the strike zone, leading to a low walk rate of 3.4%. Even with better quality of contact and expected metrics, it led to just a .306 xwOBA since June 24th.

Grosz ranks as the Rockies’ No. 20 prospect in their end-of-season rankings for 2025. However, he doesn’t rank on Arizona’s Top 30 after the trade. Reports on the right-hander are that he sits 93-95 MPH on his four-seamer with a top velocity of 98 MPH.

Grosz projects to start 2026 in Double-A Amarillo’s rotation. Daniel Eagen, Ashton Izzi, and David Hagaman should spend most of the season in Amarillo in 2026.

What’s Next for the Diamondbacks?

The trade of McCarthy lowers the D-backs 2026 CBT payroll to $203.0 million. D-backs Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said in September that they’re unlikely to field the $220 million figure they opened the season with.

So at most, they have $10-15 million to spend. Hazen has downplayed the payroll situation, but it could govern their future moves.

The bullpen is the team’s primary issue. Injuries to Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel have added uncertainty to the late innings. It’s unclear what his situation is, but there’s been no news of surgery, so he might be ready to go next month.

Arizona is searching for a “bridge closer”. Basically, someone who can step up in the closer role, then fall back to a setup role once Martinez and Puk finish their recovery from elbow surgery.

Free agency might not be a route given the team’s history. Arizona has never spent much on relievers, the biggest free agent contract going to Mark Melancon (two years, $14 million). Martinez’s extension is the most total at $18 million, but that was to a player with one year of service time.

They’re also looking for a first baseman, preferably a right-handed bat. A reunion with Paul Goldschmidt could a possibility, provided he completes the first base platoon with Pavin Smith. Goldschmidt has a .315/.389/.522 slash (152 wRC+) and 12 home runs in against southpaws.

Other options include signing Rhys Hoskins or trading for the Orioles’ Ryan Mountcastle.

Michael McDermott delivers his takeaways from these arbitration deals and discusses a potential sleeper prospect in the Diamondbacks system on the D-backs Under Review Podcast!

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Time Stamps

0:00 - Introduction
2:11 - Diamondbacks Settle All 8 Salary Arbitration Cases
19:18 - Sleeper Prospect in the Diamondbacks Farm System
27:30 - Outro

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If YouTube is your preferred medium, consider subscribing to the D-backs Under Review channel.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro

1:08 - What a 78-Win Season Means for the Diamondbacks

8:01 - The Diamondbacks’ Next Contention Window

17:00 - Zac Gallen’s Free Agency Situation

26:39 - Kayson Cunningham and D-backs 2B Prospects

34:16 - Outro

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Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:32 - D-backs Offseason Frozen by Marte Rumors
6:16 - Market Appears to Be Moving On
19:06 - David Hagaman Picked as D-backs' Breakout Prospect
34:33 - Outro

WATCH:

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:28 - GM Mike Hazen's Toughest Offseason
8:12 - Ketel Marte Likely to Stay
13:14 - 2026 Breakout Candidates
33:34 - Remaining Needs for the D-backs
42:59 - Outro

WATCH:

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
2:06 - Alex Bregman vs. Ketel Marte
12:48 - Best Trade Packages for Marte
26:39 - D-backs Showed Interest in Munetaka Murakami
31:38 - D-backs Under Review 2025 Recap
35:23 - Outro

WATCH:

Chapters:

0:00 - Introduction

0:46 - Time to Pull Ketel Marte Out of Trade Market

9:25 - D-backs Linked to Kazuma Okamoto

17:59 - Pete Fairbanks Off the Market, Signs with Marlins

25:52 - The Possibility of a Paul Goldschmidt Reunion

32:07 - Outro

Michael McDermott discusses the latest reports on the Rays link to the D-backs All-Star second baseman, the Kyle Backhus trade to the Phillies, veteran utility infielder Ildemaro Vargas returning on a minor league deal, and reports that San Diego offered Merrill Kelly a “competitive offer” before he ultimately chose to re-up with the D-backs.

WATCH:

Timestamps

0:00 - Introduction
1:48 - Could the Rays Make a Run at Ketel Marte?
15:00 - D-backs Trade LHP Kyle Backhus to Phillies
26:11 - Utility Infielder Ildemaro Vargas Returns on MiLB Deal
31:32 - Padres Made "Competitive" Offer to Merrill Kelly
36:31 - Outro

Asked about why there’s a lot of interest on Marte, D-backs GM Mike Hazen said this (H/T Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports).

"There's been continuous interest. He is one of the best players in baseball. The interest would be reflective, I think, of what you would imagine it to be."

It makes sense, since Marte is under contract for the next five seasons. His contract is very team-friendly, with $91 million remaining. Thanks to $41 million in deferrals, his present-day contract value ($72.7 million) is less than half of what Kyle Schwarber ($150 million) and Pete Alonso ($155 million) got this offseason. Add in the fact that Marte has been a more productive hitter by wRC+ (Marte 140, Schwarber 135, Alonso 128) since 2023.

The D-backs are listening to offers on Marte and will only move him for a godfather-type offer. The reasoning behind it has nothing to do with his potential clubhouse fit. That report was effectively squashed by his teammate, Geraldo Perdomo, by the end of that weekend. While Marte was disciplined by the club for being absent after the All-Star game, putting the team in a tough situation, I don’t think this is a behavior that will continue.

It has more to do with the fact that Marte will acquire 10-5 rights next season. He enters the 2026 season with 9 years and 162 days of service time. He’ll get to 10 years just 10 days into next season, with more than eight full seasons in Arizona. When he reaches that milestone on April 5th, he’ll have the ability to veto any trade he doesn’t like.

With that looming, the D-backs could potentially sell high if the right deal comes along. If it doesn’t, Marte will be in the D-backs’ lineup on March 26th. General manager Mike Hazen doesn’t have to make a deal happen, and sometimes the best trade you can make is one you don’t.

Could Rays Be Loading Up to Land Marte?

The Rays were active on the trade front. They traded a controllable starter, Shane Baz, to the Baltimore Orioles for a major prospect haul. Among the return includes right-hander Michael Forret, catcher Caden Bodine, and outfielder Slater de Brun. They also moved Brandon Lowe in a three-team trade that netted them outfield Jacob Melton from the Astros.

With more tradeable assets and an opening at second base, the Rays are a stronger contender for Ketel Marte. Tampa is one of two teams that Francys Romero reports is active in trying to land Marte from the D-backs. Romero adds that no deal is close.

After those trades, the Rays certainly have more pieces they can move to land Marte in a blockbuster deal. They have the pitching prospects in Michael Forret and Brody Hopkins. They have an MLB-ready outfield prospect in Jacob Melton. They also have a controllable starter in Ryan Pepiot, who has three years of arbitration eligibility left. They also have a controllable first baseman in Jonathan Aranda.

With plenty of tradeable assets that line up with the D-backs’ needs, the Rays certainly could be considered a frontrunner to pry Marte away from Arizona. Ken Rosenthal threw cold water on the idea that the two teams match in his latest report for The Athletic. Rosenthal noted that Tampa Bay might not have the arms that Arizona would be interested in following Baz’s trade within the division, and would require a third team to take their prospects.

A Marte deal is already going to be difficult enough to get done between two teams. Adding in a third team makes things much more difficult. With the D-backs looking for a more immediate return for pitching help, it may create more headaches than solve. If they can’t get what they think is a fair offer for Marte from the Rays or another organization, they may just move on.

Could Marte Rumors Come to an End Soon?

Lost in all the trade rumors is simply the fact that the D-backs hold all the leverage in negotiations. They can hold onto him because his contract is team-friendly. While he is their best trade chip to acquire controllable starting pitching, they shouldn’t settle for a middling return.

Based on my calculations, Marte’s surplus value from 2026-2030 adds up to $103.3 million. That’s based on a present-day value of $72.7 million remaining and a 16.0 WAR projection for the next five seasons.

The most recent trade that compares is what the Nationals got for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline. The Padres paid a significant price, with then-prospects MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, and C.J. Abrams going to Washington. Arizona will want a return closer to MLB, but that’s the type of talent it would take to get Marte. This offseason is about building a roster strong enough that the return of Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, and A.J. Puk puts them in a prime position to claim a postseason spot.

However, it looks like the Marte rumors will be coming to an end soon. Arizona Sports insider John Gambadoro reports that this will not drag on much longer (full tweet in link).

This fits Hazen’s modus operandi as the D-backs’ GM. He likes to get deals done quickly and move on to the next thing. He still has a bullpen missing viable late-inning arms and an outfield mess that he needs to address. If he’s not getting the type of offers he wants for Marte, he’ll simply pull him from the market and let his 10-5 rights take hold.

How Seriously Should We Take the Alex Bregman Rumors?

The D-backs have been linked to Alex Bregman of late. It makes sense that Arizona would at least negotiate. They have uncertainty at the third base position; Bregman is a clear upgrade, and he lives in Scottsdale in the offseason. The fit makes sense on paper if you don’t put too much thought into it.

However, I’m inclined to believe that Arizona is also in as a negotiating tactic. This is a common practice by Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras. He’s leveraging the D-backs interest to drive up the price, either in dollars or years, on other clubs. Gambadoro shares the same sentiment, putting this in the “longshot” category.

On my podcast, which is embedded below, I placed a handicap on 5-15% odds that the D-backs would actually sign Bregman. The type of money necessary to land him ($25-30 million AAV) would be better used to address the closer role and an outfield bat.

Two free agents I think would be a better use of the $25-30 million are Pete Fairbanks and Austin Hays. Arizona’s best bet to land Fairbanks would be a two-year deal (~20-22 million total) with an opt-out. Hays would be the primary starter in left field (~8-10 million per year deal). That allows the D-backs use a platoon in center field between Blaze Alexander and whoever they keep between Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas. They would flip the other for bullpen help.

Could Merrill Kelly Retire a Diamondback?

Merrill Kelly returned to the D-backs on a two-year deal this week. The deal has since been announced, with a corresponding roster move (analysis behind paywall) already made.

Both Hazen and Kelly spoke to the media on Friday.

“We feel pretty good about bringing Merrill back, obviously,” Hazen told Alex D’Agostino of Arizona Diamondbacks On SI. “He’s been one of the most consistent starting pitchers we’ve had here. He’s a leader in our clubhouse. He’s got the makeup to be at the front of our rotation. He gives a lot of stability to our rotation.”

"The reception's been great,” Kelly told D’Agostino. “Me and my family are very honored, very humbled by the reception. It seems like pretty much all the D-backs fan sare happy to have me back. They're happy with the choice that the front office made, which obviously makes you feel good."

Kelly’s contract guarantees him $40 million over the next two seasons. The only recent comparable situation was Charlie Morton with the Atlanta Braves. Morton re-upped on consecutive deals of $20 million for 2023 and 2024. After a stint in Baltimore and Detroit, Morton finished his career with a ceremonial sendoff with the Braves last season.

Kelly very well could be in that same scenario in Arizona. There is a vesting option in his contract for 2028. It triggers at 170 innings for the 2027 season, a mark he’s cleared in three of the last four seasons. The option has a base value of $12 million but could increase to $14 million if he logs 185 innings that year. I view that as unlikely, given that Kelly hasn’t pitched 185 innings more than once in his career (200.1 innings in 2022).

Should Kelly continue to be the reliable workhorse he’s been in his career, the likelihood he pitches for Arizona in 2028 is high. Should he complete that year, it would mark 10 seasons in the major leagues, all with Arizona.

Nick Ahmed remains the lone player in franchise history to spend parts of 10 seasons with the organization. Marte will be the next if he’s on the roster come Opening Day, and Kelly will hit that in 2028.

In 2024, Kelly said his primary goal was to pitch 10 years in the majors. This deal could pave the way for him to reach his goal. It’s unclear if he’ll pitch into his 40s, but if he doesn’t, his last game could be in a D-backs uniform.

Read more

Michael McDermott discusses the latest rumors on Bregman, and how his potential signing would impact the D-backs’ infield in the short and long term, for the D-backs Under Review Podcast.

WATCH

Chapters:

• 0:00 - Introduction

• 0:49 - D-backs Named Surprise Suitor for Alex Bregman

• 5:41 - What a Deal Would Mean for Ketel Marte Trade Rumors

• 10:41 - Impact on Jordan Lawlar’s Future in Arizona

• 14:53 - D-backs 3B Situation in Farm System

• 19:03 - Outro

Bregman, 31, lives in Scottsdale and trains in Arizona during the offseason. Signing with the D-backs would allow him to live with his family year-round for the foreseeable future. Those same perks led to both Eduardo Rodríguez and Corbin Burnes to sign with Arizona in each of the last two offseasons.

Bregman is on the open market for the second straight winter. In 2025, he slashed .271/.360/.462 with 18 home runs and a 128 OPS+ at the plate with solid third base defense. A right quad strain limited him to just 114 games, but he put up 3.5 bWAR. With a solid bounce-back year in Boston, he opted out of the final two years, and should have a stronger market without being weighed down by the qualifying offer.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Bregman will sign a six-year, $160 million ($26.7M AAV) contract. The median crowd source on FanGraphs has him at five years and $155 million ($31M AAV).

What Alex Bregman brings to the Diamondbacks

Bregman brings elite plate discipline and contact skills to the D-backs lineup. For his career, he carries a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 11.8% walk rate. His 2025 numbers were right around his career marks, at 14.1% and 10.3% respectively.

Looking at Bregman’s Statcast metrics, it’s easy to see how. His 19.8% chase rate ranks in the 95th percentile among MLB hitters, and his 15.0% whiff rate in the 92nd. His contact rate within the strike zone is 90.6%, right in line with his career norms.

With that type of contact and discipline, he would ideally bat second in the order behind Geraldo Perdomo. Between Bregman and Perdomo, the top of the lineup should grind down opposing starters and create run-scoring opportunities for Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno.

There are some concerns about his quality of contact, which is why he was on the market so long last offseason. He posted a hard-hit (95+ MPH exit velocity) and barrel rates of 44.4% and 6.6% respectively.

While he’s not an elite power bat, he gets the most out of his contact when he connects. 24.4% of his batted balls are pulled in the air, the type of contact that leads to more slugging. That’s why his home run rates seem to outpace his batted ball data. With Chase Field playing extremely big in center field, he needs to keep that skill set in Arizona.

Defensively, Bregman still profiles as a third baseman. He was still a good defender in 2025, rating at +1 fielding runs on Baseball Reference and +3 fielding run value on Baseball Savant. He immediately slots in at the position for the foreseeable future. Blaze Alexander shifts to a utility infielder role, starting primarily against left-handed pitching as a de facto DH. Jordan Lawlar becomes a candidate to move to the outfield, unless they move a starting infielder. Lawlar is tentatively projected to be the D-backs’ starting third baseman going into 2026.

The move also has further implications down the minor league system. LuJames Groover III, the only plausible third base prospect in the organization, would likely see a move across the diamond to first base to get into the lineup. Groover has shown the ability to hit for average in the minors due to his ability to hit the ball hard, but struggles to hit them at the right launch angles for more slug.

Could a Bregman Signing Lead to a Ketel Marte Trade?

With payroll as tight as it is, a Bregman signing increases the likelihood of a Ketel Marte trade. Roster Resource currently projects them at $171 million for the 2026 season, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of $205.9 million.

A Bregman deal will push the CBT number up another $26.7-$31.2 million, if we go by the two projected contracts. That puts them dangerously close to the first threshold for penalties (~$237.1 million based off FanGraphs projection), which would be a 20% tax as a first-time offender. It’s unlikely the D-backs ever cross that threshold.

For the 2026 payroll, it’s unclear what that number will be. Bregman’s lowest salary compensation will be in Year 1, and it could range anywhere from $15-30 million. That could, in turn, limit their flexibility to address their other needs, depending on how high the number is.

That could force the team to move their best trade asset. By moving Marte, they save $12.5 million on the CBT and could add more youth to their roster. A deal would have to include young starting pitching and a controllable outfield bat. Arizona will listen intently to all offers involving their All-Star second baseman, although they aren’t any more or less motivated to move him after two rotation signings.

This is the last offseason they can trade him unhindered. 10 days into the 2026 season (April 6th), he’ll obtain 10-5 rights. A collectively-bargained right, a player with 10 years of service time and the last five coming with his current club can veto any trade. He currently has a five-team no-trade list, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: Pirates, Yankees, Athletics, Cardinals, and Giants.

The Boston Red Sox are the one team that can best accommodate the D-backs, if they are motivated to make a deal. MLB Insider Mark Feinsand said the same on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show. They have plenty of appealing options the D-backs could go for: OF Jarren Duran, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Connelly Early, and INF Marcelo Mayer. Duran has three years of control, while the other three players have the full six after debuting in 2025.

If Arizona wants the best short-term return, then a package around Duran and Early makes the most sense. If they want a stronger long-term return, then a prospect-heavy return of Tolle/Early, Mayer, and another prospect makes more sense. The D-backs were seeking Early in a hypothetical Merrill Kelly deal to the Red Sox, before trading him to the Texas Rangers, so they’ll likely target him again in a Marte deal.

Movement on Marte on the trade market won’t likely occur until Bregman, Cody Bellinger, and Kyle Tucker all sign this offseason.

WATCH

Chapters

0:00 - Intro

0:27 - Merrill Kelly Contract Details

7:36 - Likelihood of a Ketel Marte Deal?

14:11 - Remaining Offseason Needs

18:05 - Under the Radar Relievers

25:48 - Outro