Diamondbacks Named Surprise Entrant in Alex Bregman Sweepstakes
The Diamondbacks could swoop in and claim a top free agent for the second offseason in a row, based on the latest reports on free-agent infielder Alex Bregman.
For the second straight offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks could sign a free agent that wasn’t linked to them. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the D-backs are a surprise entrant in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes. While Nightengale reports Arizona is “kicking the tires”, Jared Carrabis’ report suggests their interest level is deeper than that.
Bregman, 31, lives in Scottsdale and trains in Arizona during the offseason. Signing with the D-backs would allow him to live with his family year-round for the foreseeable future. Those same perks led to both Eduardo Rodríguez and Corbin Burnes to sign with Arizona in each of the last two offseasons.
Bregman is on the open market for the second straight winter. In 2025, he slashed .271/.360/.462 with 18 home runs and a 128 OPS+ at the plate with solid third base defense. A right quad strain limited him to just 114 games, but he put up 3.5 bWAR. With a solid bounce-back year in Boston, he opted out of the final two years, and should have a stronger market without being weighed down by the qualifying offer.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts Bregman will sign a six-year, $160 million ($26.7M AAV) contract. The median crowd source on FanGraphs has him at five years and $155 million ($31M AAV).
What Alex Bregman brings to the Diamondbacks
Bregman brings elite plate discipline and contact skills to the D-backs lineup. For his career, he carries a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 11.8% walk rate. His 2025 numbers were right around his career marks, at 14.1% and 10.3% respectively.
Looking at Bregman’s Statcast metrics, it’s easy to see how. His 19.8% chase rate ranks in the 95th percentile among MLB hitters, and his 15.0% whiff rate in the 92nd. His contact rate within the strike zone is 90.6%, right in line with his career norms.
With that type of contact and discipline, he would ideally bat second in the order behind Geraldo Perdomo. Between Bregman and Perdomo, the top of the lineup should grind down opposing starters and create run-scoring opportunities for Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno.
There are some concerns about his quality of contact, which is why he was on the market so long last offseason. He posted a hard-hit (95+ MPH exit velocity) and barrel rates of 44.4% and 6.6% respectively.
While he’s not an elite power bat, he gets the most out of his contact when he connects. 24.4% of his batted balls are pulled in the air, the type of contact that leads to more slugging. That’s why his home run rates seem to outpace his batted ball data. With Chase Field playing extremely big in center field, he needs to keep that skill set in Arizona.
Defensively, Bregman still profiles as a third baseman. He was still a good defender in 2025, rating at +1 fielding runs on Baseball Reference and +3 fielding run value on Baseball Savant. He immediately slots in at the position for the foreseeable future. Blaze Alexander shifts to a utility infielder role, starting primarily against left-handed pitching as a de facto DH. Jordan Lawlar becomes a candidate to move to the outfield, unless they move a starting infielder. Lawlar is tentatively projected to be the D-backs’ starting third baseman going into 2026.
The move also has further implications down the minor league system. LuJames Groover III, the only plausible third base prospect in the organization, would likely see a move across the diamond to first base to get into the lineup. Groover has shown the ability to hit for average in the minors due to his ability to hit the ball hard, but struggles to hit them at the right launch angles for more slug.
Could a Bregman Signing Lead to a Ketel Marte Trade?
With payroll as tight as it is, a Bregman signing increases the likelihood of a Ketel Marte trade. Roster Resource currently projects them at $171 million for the 2026 season, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of $205.9 million.
A Bregman deal will push the CBT number up another $26.7-$31.2 million, if we go by the two projected contracts. That puts them dangerously close to the first threshold for penalties (~$237.1 million based off FanGraphs projection), which would be a 20% tax as a first-time offender. It’s unlikely the D-backs ever cross that threshold.
For the 2026 payroll, it’s unclear what that number will be. Bregman’s lowest salary compensation will be in Year 1, and it could range anywhere from $15-30 million. That could, in turn, limit their flexibility to address their other needs, depending on how high the number is.
That could force the team to move their best trade asset. By moving Marte, they save $12.5 million on the CBT and could add more youth to their roster. A deal would have to include young starting pitching and a controllable outfield bat. Arizona will listen intently to all offers involving their All-Star second baseman, although they aren’t any more or less motivated to move him after two rotation signings.
This is the last offseason they can trade him unhindered. 10 days into the 2026 season (April 6th), he’ll obtain 10-5 rights. A collectively-bargained right, a player with 10 years of service time and the last five coming with his current club can veto any trade. He currently has a five-team no-trade list, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic: Pirates, Yankees, Athletics, Cardinals, and Giants.
The Boston Red Sox are the one team that can best accommodate the D-backs, if they are motivated to make a deal. MLB Insider Mark Feinsand said the same on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show. They have plenty of appealing options the D-backs could go for: OF Jarren Duran, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Connelly Early, and INF Marcelo Mayer. Duran has three years of control, while the other three players have the full six after debuting in 2025.
If Arizona wants the best short-term return, then a package around Duran and Early makes the most sense. If they want a stronger long-term return, then a prospect-heavy return of Tolle/Early, Mayer, and another prospect makes more sense. The D-backs were seeking Early in a hypothetical Merrill Kelly deal to the Red Sox, before trading him to the Texas Rangers, so they’ll likely target him again in a Marte deal.
Movement on Marte on the trade market won’t likely occur until Bregman, Cody Bellinger, and Kyle Tucker all sign this offseason.