Diamondbacks Prospects Who Could Break Camp Part 1: Hitters and Starting Pitchers
Highlighting five prospects, either a hitter or starting pitcher, in the Diamondbacks farm system that have a non-zero shot of making the Opening Day roster.
The Arizona Diamondbacks announced their roster for Spring Training. Among my Top 40 prospects entering the 2026 season, 20 will participate in big league Spring Training. 11 of them are non-roster invitees.
It’s usually a good sign when a top prospect gets a camp invite. That typically means the organization wants to evaluate them as potential additions to the big league roster. Some prospects will have a chance to break camp on the Opening Day roster.
The most recent example is infielder Blaze Alexander, who hit .400 in Spring Training to win the backup shortstop job in 2024. I had him as the D-backs’ No. 25 prospect going into that season.
We’ll take a look at some candidates who could accomplish that feat in 2026. Since there are a lot of potential relievers on my prospect list, I’ve elected to break this into two pieces. Otherwise, this newsletter will be longer than Michael Soroka’s injury history since 2020.
OF Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 1)
Ryan Waldschmidt should be deep into the starting left field mix. The D-backs have yet to make any additions to the outfield, the sole transaction being a trade of Jake McCarthy to the Rockies. That opens the window for Waldschmidt to steal the left field job.
The D-backs’ consensus top prospect has only played one full season in the minor leagues. That brings some questions about his readiness, but those won’t be answered until he takes a Cactus League at-bat. But at the same time, his viability as the club’s left fielder is in the same boat until his fate is decided.
Arizona could stand to benefit if Waldschmidt is ready earlier than expected. He’s a consensus Top 100 prospect on Baseball America (48), MLB (59), and ESPN (63). That makes him one of 98 prospects eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. That puts the D-backs in position to gain draft picks, but that’s easier said than done.
While Waldschmidt is a consensus Top 100 prospect, he’s closer to the bottom than the top. My grade on the outfielder is a 55 FV, which translates to around 2.5-3.5 WAR. I have him as a 20-homer, 20-steal hitter that will likely produce a .260/.350/.460 slash line.
I think the D-backs should give Waldschmidt a fair chance to win the left field job over Jorge Barrosa, Blaze Alexander, and Jordan Lawlar. Barrosa profiles more as a fourth outfielder, and Lawlar has one minor league option remaining. If he looks overmatched vs. big league pitchers in March, they can always have him get another 200-250 plate appearances in Reno, then re-evaluate.
2B/OF Tommy Troy (No. 2)
Tommy Troy is in a bit of an interesting situation. He’s momentarily blocked at second base by Ketel Marte, so the D-backs experimented with him in the outfield late in the 2025 season. Troy played some games in center field with Amarillo and Reno down the stretch.
With the D-backs relying on their infield surplus for outfield depth, it will be survival of the fittest. Troy has to compete with Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, and Ryan Waldschmidt for playing time in Arizona’s outfield. With the team relying on internal depth, one of the four players will be their left fielder on Opening Day.
Troy doesn’t carry a high ceiling compared to other bats in the system, but rather a strong floor. He’s a surefire regular at second base and is the type of player who will squeeze every bit of talent he has into production. Having interviewed Troy multiple times in the Arizona Fall League in 2024, it’s pretty clear he’s the type of player who loves baseball and loves the grind of a season. It’s perhaps why he’s consistently improved every year since setting foot on Stanford.
Should Troy not make the Opening Day roster, he’s in a similar boat as Waldschmidt. Injuries and performances will dictate when he debuts with the D-backs this season, although it seems sooner rather than later. He’s already got a healthy sample size in Reno (38 games and 162 plate appearances) to evaluate. Assuming further improvement, he’s going to keep banging on the door until GM Mike Hazen has to answer it.
LHP Kohl Drake (No. 7)
Kohl Drake needs injuries to a couple of pitchers in front of him, but it’s enough to consider him a possibility. Drake was one of three pitchers that came to Arizona at the trade deadline for Merrill Kelly. Of the three pitchers, the left-hander is the most MLB-ready.
Drake was added to the D-backs’ 40-man roster in November. I personally have him as their No. 7 starter going into camp. Beyond their starting five of Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Michael Soroka. Soroka and Rodríguez have lengthy enough injury histories, so there could be a path to a rotation spot for Drake this spring.
Drake profiles more as a No. 4 starter. His four-seamer and sinker average just above 93 MPH from Triple-A pitch data. That’s right around the MLB average for a left-handed pitcher. He utilizes a curveball, slider, and a changeup as his secondaries.
He dominated his way through Double-A, putting up a 31.8% rate with Frisco. Drake was promoted to Triple-A just before the trade, then made a handful of starts with Reno before a minor shoulder injury ended his season.
It’s only a matter of time before Drake gets a major league look. The reality is the D-backs will need eight or more starters to get through the season. Injuries will open the door for him to pitch. With a healthy rotation coming out of spring, he’s more likely to be Reno’s Opening Day starter.
RHP Cristian Mena (No. 16)
Cristian Mena is in an interesting spot. The right-hander has seen his last two seasons cut short by arm injuries. However, he may be the D-backs’ first man up should injuries strike the rotation.
In parts of two seasons, Mena has appeared in four games (one start). In 2025, he made three appearances. He pitched to a 1.35 ERA with eight strikeouts and three walks over 6.2 innings. His best game came against the Dodgers on May 9th, when he held LA’s potent lineup scoreless for 3.2 innings. Arizona eventually came back from an 8-3 deficit to take an 11-8 lead that the bullpen eventually blew.
Mena has the type of stuff that could play in a bullpen, but he’s more valuable as a starter right now. In addition to mid-90s velocity on a four-seamer and sinker, he utilizes a curveball, sweeper, and a changeup. The curveball is more akin to a deathball slider, sitting at 88.2 MPH with -1.2” induced vertical break and 1.4” glove-side break.
His four-seamer, curveball, and slider combination is already a strong enough mix for Mena to be a backend reliever. Should he fail to crack the rotation, Arizona could look into that possibility. The team is sorely missing power arms, and Mena is too talented to stash in Reno anymore. In fact, I have him as the one prospect who has the best chance of breaking camp with the club.
SS Jose Fernandez (No. 28)
Like Drake, Jose Fernandez was a recent addition to Arizona’s 40-man roster. Despite Geraldo Perdomo breaking out as an MVP candidate in 2025, the D-backs are thin on shortstop depth. That could be why the team elected to add Fernandez instead of risking losing him in the Rule 5 Draft.
Fernandez is no threat to unseat Perdomo at the shortstop position. But rather, he could serve as the ideal fill-in should injuries strike. With his 40-man clock already started, the D-backs should have him compete for a utility role. His past experience at first and third base should give him more coverage. That will put him in competition with veteran infielder Ildemaro Vargas, with his ability to play shortstop being an advantage.
He’s only 22, so there may be more power coming out of the bat. The power began to emerge with Amarillo, slugging 17 home runs in 511 plate appearances. His .183 ISO was a career-high, and his batted ball data suggests someone who can hit for more power. If his ground ball rate drops below 45% and his walk rate improves, he’s going to outgrow his utility projection. In that scenario, he might give LuJames Groover a run for his money as the heir apparent at third base.
Further Prospect Notes
Adding some notes on prospects added to camp that I didn’t dive into.
Daniel Eagen (No. 3) being invited to camp is a good sign for him. The right-hander has a more vertical approach to attacking hitters with a four-seamer, curveball, and a deathball slider. All three of those pitches have very little horizontal break. He added a splitter in 2025 for an arm-side pitch, but I wonder if he should work on a cutter for a glove-side look.
Cristofer Torin (No. 15) has a big year ahead of him. While he’s blocked at shortstop by Perdomo, he was ranked the best defensive infielder in the system by Nick Piecoro. He’s almost certain to be a 40-man roster addition in November as Arizona’s best shortstop prospect.
Left-handers Spencer Giesting (No. 33) and Yu-Min Lin (No. 34) could serve as rotation depth options. However, I’m not particularly bullish on either arm lasting in a rotation. Both pitchers are reliever conversion candidates once the trio of Daniel Eagen, David Hagaman, and Ashton Izzi reaches Reno. Both pitchers sit around 90 MPH with a fastball, but have fantastic sweepers.
Ivan Melendez (No. 36) finally broke the seal in his third year in Amarillo, finally reaching Reno. Given Arizona’s lack of long-term options at first base, he’s still an interesting option. The team is looking for a right-handed bat to play first base, and Melendez fits that profile. Interestingly enough, he didn’t have major platoon splits in the minors last season.
Kristian Robinson (No. 38) also ended the 2025 season with Reno. While I’m less concerned about the swing-and-miss, his quality of contact takes center stage. From the Arizona Fall League and Reno batted ball data, Robinson has a tendency to beat the ball into the ground. He has arguably the fastest bat in Arizona’s system, on par with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte (maybe Ivan Melendez once I get those marks). He’s also a candidate for the left field role, but I’m less bullish on him sticking than Waldschmidt.