Ketel Marte Trade Talk Dominates D-backs’ Quiet Winter Meetings

Trade buzz around Ketel Marte grew louder as the D-backs left the Winter Meetings with little progress. With pitching holes unfilled, Arizona may face a franchise-defining choice.

The likelihood that the Diamondbacks trade their star second baseman is growing by the day, even if it’s still unlikely at this point. With the need to address multiple holes on the pitching side and a very tight budget to do it with, a trade feels inevitable. Frontline starting pitching is very difficult to acquire, and their best trade chip to land one that actually improves the ceiling of their rotation is Ketel Marte.

It’s a rather unfortunate situation for Marte, who’s spent nine seasons with the D-backs (2017-25). He’s been through some of the best and worst seasons, being named an All-Star three times and the 2023 National League Championship Series MVP. Looking at his entire tenure, he is in the conversation for one of the best hitters in franchise history. The issue is that Arizona lacks a strong enough pipeline of young talent, both hitting and pitching, that it can afford to part with to facilitate a deal.

It makes sense for teams to want to target Marte on the market. In the last three seasons, he’s produced a .287/.368/.519 slash with 87 home runs and a 140 wRC+, averaging 137 games and 596 plate appearances per season. His 140 wRC+ metric is stronger than Kyle Schwarber's (135) and Pete Alonso's (128), who both secured deals north of $150 million this week. Marte comes at a considerably lesser cost than those two sluggers, with $91 million guaranteed left on the extension he signed in April, plus an $11.5 million player option for 2031.

While he’s hit substantially fewer home runs than Schwarber (148) and Alonso (118), Marte makes up for it as a more dynamic hitter. His skill set fits anywhere in the top three spots of any batting lineup, due to his ability to hit for both a high average and 30+ home run power in his prime.

D-backs Asking Price on Ketel Marte Remains Astronomically High

Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported Wednesday that the D-backs and Rays discussed Marte. The discussion included right-handers Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot, with no agreement coming close. Both Baz and Pepiot have three years of control, but neither pitcher would be considered a frontline starter today. That in itself makes it a risky proposition for the club, especially if Baz never reaches that type of upside that made him the No. 12 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft.

Piecoro added that another team was asked for a higher-profile starter for Marte. So it’s pretty clear that general manager Mike Hazen is asking for a substantial haul. I can presume it would have to be something that dwarfs what the Padres and Astros got for the final year of control for Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker.

The D-backs have only made one notable addition this offseason, signing right-hander Michael Soroka to a one-year deal. Soroka, who has a troubling injury history, currently projects as Arizona’s No. 4 starter. He’ll likely open the season as their No. 5, assuming Hazen makes another move to address the rotation.

It’s worth noting that Arizona did not come close to finishing any deals at the Winter Meetings, although trade discussions may pick up later. Marte’s market may heat up once Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker’s free agency situations come to a close. With fewer options on the market, they could leverage clubs that miss out on Bellinger and Tucker to drive up the price.

The question that the D-backs face right now is whether they can strengthen their rotation without having to say goodbye to another long-tenured star. Until they decide to move him, that’s the last you’ll hear from me regarding those rumors. It’s more likely they’ll try other options first and kill any trade speculation if they can.

Should Hazen elect to hold onto Marte, his 10-5 rights (10 years service time, 5+ with current club) kick in just 10 days into the 2026 season. That would give him the right to veto any trade he doesn’t want.

Pierce Johnson Among Many Linked to D-backs Bullpen Search

Another free-agent reliever the D-backs were linked to during the Winter Meetings was right-hander Pierce Johnson as a potential setup man. Arizona should be familiar with the 35-year-old, as he spent time with the San Francisco Giants (2018), San Diego Padres (2020-22), and Colorado Rockies (2023).

Johnson became a free agent after the 2025 season when the Atlanta Braves declined a $7.5 million club option. One reason that the Braves could have elected to part with Johnson was his second-half decline. His strikeout rate dropped from 27.3% in the first half to 21.7% in the second half, including a 21.4% rate in September. Given his decline in performance and his age (turns 35 in May), Atlanta chose to pay a $250K buyout and saved $6.75 million.

Johnson is a curveball specialist, throwing it more than 72% of the time in 2025. It’s a hard, tight-spinning breaking ball, averaging 85.8 MPH and 2914 RPM. It doesn’t carry a traditional curveball shape, with only -4.3” induced vertical break and 7.4” glove-side sweep. He attacks hitters vertically, using a 95.3 MPH four-seamer at the very top of the zone and above to get hitters off the curve.

Arizona could swoop in and try to land him in the $5-6 million range. He’s never been a backend arm in his career. With no certainty as to who’s pitching the seventh inning or later in 2026, Johnson is a candidate. They’d still need to land a closer to complement that signing. The only closer candidate they’ve been connected to is former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks.

The D-backs are also linked to former Yankees reliever Jonathan Loáisiga. The right-hander has battled injuries in his career, but posted outstanding underlying metrics in 2025. While he shouldn’t be in consideration for the closer role, it’s the type of upside signing the team should make to add more stuff to the bullpen.

While his 18.5% strikeout rate is a bit of a concern, suggesting a lack of bat-missing ability, he was producing a chase rate of 40.6% and a whiff rate of 26.5%. That may result in more strikeouts down the road. If not, he still carries a weak contact (35.5% hard-hit rate) and ground ball (50%) profile. One random thought I had is his “curveball” might be a misidentified sweeper with a 0” iVB, 8.9” glove-side shape.

Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy On the Move?

Another option to shore up the bullpen would be to trade one of their outfielders, something that Gambadoro brought up on his radio show. The D-backs are unlikely to keep both Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy, both of whom have three years of control remaining. However, both players endured a rough 2025 season and have the organization looking for outfield help this offseason.

McCarthy has a more stable profile, as he’s 28 and likely carries the upside of a fourth outfielder who can cover all three spots. His declining plate discipline metrics and poor quality of contact profile limit his offensive upside. He’s the type of player who can make an impact on the bases, but the problem is getting on base consistently. Following a stint in Reno, he produced a .260 xBA and a .405 xSLG. Unfortunately, the profile was weighed down by a 3.4% walk rate, resulting in just a .306 xwOBA.

Thomas is a more interesting case. Once a prospect who was pushing Top 20 overall status during his debut, his batting mechanics got exposed by major league pitchers. His approach completely unraveled, leading to his chasing pitches well out of the zone and missing them. He posted career-worsts in chase rate (35.1%), whiff rate (28.7%), strikeout rate (26.0%), and walk rate (4.5%). Throw in poor quality of contact metrics, in which he ranked well below the MLB median in hard-hit and barrel rates, it added up to a pretty awful year for Thomas in 2025.

At 25 and with a much better strength profile than McCarthy, there is more power upside for the team that fixes his ground ball problem. His declining defensive metrics are also a concern, as he went from a plus defender as a rookie (7 OAA in 2022) to average since.

McCarthy is more likely to fetch a useful reliever, as his profile is a lot less volatile and easier to play. Curiously enough, in even years, he’s produced 4.1 of 4.3 career bWAR. However, an organization may be willing to gamble that it can fix Thomas’ ground ball issues and make him a 20-homer threat overnight.