Tommy Troy’s Rise May Force the D-backs to Rethink Second Base

The Arizona Diamondbacks face a franchise-altering decision with their MVP candidate over the next calendar year. Ketel Marte will turn 32 in October, and after inking another extension with the club, is under contract through 2031. He’s currently entrenched as the club’s starting second baseman, having started the previous two All-Star games for the National League, but the emergence of a top infielder prospect could force a change.

Barring a godfather offer built around frontline starting pitching, Marte isn’t going anywhere. General manager Mike Hazen has no incentive to trade his star second baseman unless the return resembles a Mason Miller-level package. Anything less than a massive overpay could alienate the fan base and put Hazen’s job as the club’s lead decision maker at risk.

However, that doesn’t mean Marte’s role as the everyday second baseman is secure in the long term. Infielder Tommy Troy, a second baseman by trade, was promoted to Triple-A Reno last week. With Troy now knocking on the door to the big leagues, the D-backs need to start discussing where he fits and what that means for Marte.

Who is Tommy Troy?

Tommy Troy was the D-backs’ top selection in the 2023 MLB Draft, selected 12th overall in what turned out to be a college-only draft class for Arizona. Troy signed an under-slot $4.4 million deal, with the idea he’d rocket through the system. That belief has held so far, as he’s reached Triple-A just two years after signing his first professional contract and could debut within three calendar years.

In his first year in the organization, they tried to develop him as a shortstop. That experiment failed so badly, they slid him to second base in 2025. While they’ve gotten him some looks in center field, all coming in the past month, 79 of his 88 starts have come at second. So it’s pretty evident the D-backs see him as a second baseman in the long-term view.

Troy’s coming off a strong run with Double-A Amarillo, slashing .286/.382/.467 with 12 home runs. His 125 wRC+ ranked fourth among players in the Texas League who appeared in 80 games this season. There’s no question he’s earned his promotion, one I considered long overdue.

Beyond solid production, Troy has drastically improved at the plate, despite advancing to a more challenging level. He’s dropped his strikeout rate by 5% (22.2% → 17.5%) and increased his walk rate by 2% (10.4% → 12.3%). Those two things happening simultaneously likely signal an improved approach at the plate.

It’s also showing up in his contact quality, as his ground ball rate dropped from 47.0% in Hillsboro to 41.6% in Amarillo. Simultaneously, his line drive rate has shot up by the same rate. We’re talking a sample of 1,475 pitches and 280 batted balls at Double-A with these changes, so it might not be enough to force a long-term decision regarding both Troy and Marte’s fit with the club.

With Troy’s projected debut set for some time during the 2026 season, those discussions certainly are going to become more focused in the D-backs organization starting this winter. As he gets roughly 35-40 games in Reno to close out the season, he has an opportunity to force some difficult conversations.

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What is Tommy Troy’s 2026 Outlook?

While Troy is unlikely to force a decision before Opening Day 2026, as he’ll likely only have 150-200 plate appearances with Reno before the season ends. It’s barely enough of a sample size to determine swing decisions, strikeout rate, and walk rate. It won’t be enough for contact quality and batted ball outcomes, making him a difficult projection.

I have Troy as my No. 2 prospect in the D-backs organization, following outfielder Slade Caldwell. This list does not include Jordan Lawlar, Tyler Locklear, or Adrian Del Castillo, as I project them to graduate before the end of the 2025 season.

It would be interesting to see if Troy vaults up the prospect rankings. If he were to land on two Top 100 Prospects Lists between Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, or ESPN, he qualifies for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. It’s unlikely to happen, as his Double-A numbers were good, not mind-blowingly great for a 23-year-old prospect who projects as an average regular starter at second.

Barring a mind-blowingly good spring, Troy will likely open 2026 with Reno. How well he performs could determine his place on the organization’s depth chart at second. The team has Blaze Alexander and Tim Tawa as other possible internal options at the position. Both players come with notable big league experience, even if they haven’t established themselves yet.

However, it’s only going to be a matter of time before Troy knocks down the door. His gap-to-gap and fastball-killing approach is going to be heavily rewarded in the high-elevation, spacious ballparks in the Pacific Coast League. He’s shown massive improvements at checking off breaking balls out of the zone and hammering secondary mistakes this season, suggesting this approach is sustainable.

The likely sample size needed to get Troy up to the big leagues is roughly 70 games, or roughly 350 plate appearances, with Reno. Assuming he’ll play an average of five games a week when healthy, I’d project him to reach that mark in May 2026. So I’d consider him a midseason call-up candidate.

Can the D-backs Find Playing Time for Both Ketel Marte and Tommy Troy?

Since both players are second basemen, the question is whether the D-backs have the opportunity to play both at the same time. The answer is yes, and the solution comes with the designated hitter role. Marte is under contract through 2031 at roughly $14.6 million per season, which is more than acceptable for a full-time DH if they feel the bat will age well.

That’s a decision more reserved for the second half of 2026 and beyond, as next year should be about getting Troy some major league experience. Marte should be penciled in as the primary second baseman, so the team will need to figure out the DH situation between Pavin Smith and his potential right-handed complement. That solution only needs to hold for the 2026 season.

Projecting to 2027, the ideal situation is that Troy has wrestled the starting second base job from Marte. Marte’s bat is still strong enough that he’d be pushing Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber for the starting DH role for the National League in the All-Star Game.