Tyler Locklear Surgery Complicates D-backs’ 2026 First Base Plans
Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that Locklear will undergo surgery on his left shoulder and elbow.
The Diamondbacks received some awful news concerning injured first baseman Tyler Locklear. Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that Locklear will undergo surgery on his left shoulder (torn labrum) and elbow (torn ligament). Dr. Keith Meister will be performing the surgery on October 16th.
Locklear missed the final 18 games of the year after a collision with the Red Sox's Connor Wong on September 7th. He was the centerpiece in the deal that sent back Eugenio Suárez to the Mariners. His power surge in June and July for Triple-A Tacoma gave confidence that they picked up a young power bat to build around.
The expectation was that Locklear would get a lengthy runway to finish out the year. He was one of six prospects the team needed to vet by season's end. However, he looked overmatched in his first extended look against big league pitching. He struggled to a .175/.267/.262 slash line in 116 plate appearances, as his approach got exposed.
Prognosis for Tyler Locklear's Recovery
The recovery and rehab timeline from labrum surgery will be longer than the elbow, since it's his non-throwing arm. The quickest recovery case in recent history was Jordan Lawlar, who tore his posterior labrum in August 2021. He was fully participating in baseball activities by March 14, 2022.
Even if Locklear's rehab timeline was the same as Lawlar's, you're talking about a May return at the earliest. That would necessitate a stint on the 10-day injured list to open the 2026 season.
However, it may be unreasonable to assume his recovery will be that fast. He's having multiple surgeries on the same arm, potentially adding to the recovery timeline. He may open the season on the 60-day injured list, depending on whether the team needs to free up a 40-man spot.
Locklear will likely join A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, Corbin Burnes, Blake Walston, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the 60-day IL by Opening Day.
Plan at First Base Without Tyler Locklear
Arizona Sports insider John Gambadoro reported Wednesday that the team will stand pat at first base.
I would expect 1B to not be much of a priority for the Dbacks this offseason - They have Pavin Smith, Tyler Locklear and Tim Tawa that can man the position. Could still add one because none of those guys are proven but SP and Bullpen will be much higher of a priority.
— John Gambadoro (@Gambo987) October 1, 2025
That likely means they'll operate with a Pavin Smith/Tim Tawa platoon at first base to start 2026. To give you an idea of how that might play out, here are the platoon splits for both players.
Smith vs. RHP: 264 PA, .265/.361/.456, 127 wRC+, 8 HR, 31.4 K%, 13.3 BB%
Tawa vs. LHP: 88 PA, .253/.293/.333, 72 wRC+, 1 HR, 29.3 K%, 6.1 BB%
That puts the team in a tough position for offense at first in 2026. They'd certainly enjoy Smith's 2025 production, but a strikeout rate over 30% for a hitter with modest power output raises concern about its sustainability. Smith has never hit more than 11 home runs in a single season in his career. That could create problems in the future if the high strikeout rate is the new normal.
From a cost-to-production standpoint, the D-backs could do a lot worse than Smith at first base. The 31.4% strikeout rate vs. righties in 2025 is still a big statistical outlier compared to past seasons. The last two seasons, he's produced a 134 wRC+ when holding the platoon advantage.
The short side of the platoon is the more worrisome part. Standing put with Tawa is a risky gamble with minimal upside. His expected stats were equally as poor, as he put up a .220 xBA, .328 xSLG, and .270 xwOBA against lefties in 2025. He's almost certain to perform better with more experience, but the question remains if that's their best option.
Alternatively, they could turn to former All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. He crushed left-handed pitching in 2025, slashing .336/.393/.570 against southpaws. His expected stats were even better, with a .360 xBA, .640 xSLG, and .448 xwOBA. The team could certainly use a capable veteran in their clubhouse, in the mold of Evan Longoria in 2023.
It's not certain that the 38-year-old first baseman is willing to return in a reduced role and a lower paycheck. He's more or less cemented his Hall of Fame credentials. Best-case scenario, it opens the door for him to retire with the team he started his career with.
Further Reading
Michael McDermott
