Ketel Marte Rumors Come to Head as 2025 Comes to a Close
Two AL East teams may be loading up to try to pry All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte from the Diamondbacks, who are listening to offers before his 10-5 rights kick in next April.
As we close in on Christmas and the end of the year, the Diamondbacks hold the entire MLB offseason in their hands. Teams are lining up to check on the availability of All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte, holding up the market for a lot of teams looking to upgrade their lineup.
Asked about why there’s a lot of interest on Marte, D-backs GM Mike Hazen said this (H/T Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports).
"There's been continuous interest. He is one of the best players in baseball. The interest would be reflective, I think, of what you would imagine it to be."
It makes sense, since Marte is under contract for the next five seasons. His contract is very team-friendly, with $91 million remaining. Thanks to $41 million in deferrals, his present-day contract value ($72.7 million) is less than half of what Kyle Schwarber ($150 million) and Pete Alonso ($155 million) got this offseason. Add in the fact that Marte has been a more productive hitter by wRC+ (Marte 140, Schwarber 135, Alonso 128) since 2023.
The D-backs are listening to offers on Marte and will only move him for a godfather-type offer. The reasoning behind it has nothing to do with his potential clubhouse fit. That report was effectively squashed by his teammate, Geraldo Perdomo, by the end of that weekend. While Marte was disciplined by the club for being absent after the All-Star game, putting the team in a tough situation, I don’t think this is a behavior that will continue.
It has more to do with the fact that Marte will acquire 10-5 rights next season. He enters the 2026 season with 9 years and 162 days of service time. He’ll get to 10 years just 10 days into next season, with more than eight full seasons in Arizona. When he reaches that milestone on April 5th, he’ll have the ability to veto any trade he doesn’t like.
With that looming, the D-backs could potentially sell high if the right deal comes along. If it doesn’t, Marte will be in the D-backs’ lineup on March 26th. General manager Mike Hazen doesn’t have to make a deal happen, and sometimes the best trade you can make is one you don’t.
Could Rays Be Loading Up to Land Marte?
The Rays were active on the trade front. They traded a controllable starter, Shane Baz, to the Baltimore Orioles for a major prospect haul. Among the return includes right-hander Michael Forret, catcher Caden Bodine, and outfielder Slater de Brun. They also moved Brandon Lowe in a three-team trade that netted them outfield Jacob Melton from the Astros.
With more tradeable assets and an opening at second base, the Rays are a stronger contender for Ketel Marte. Tampa is one of two teams that Francys Romero reports is active in trying to land Marte from the D-backs. Romero adds that no deal is close.
After those trades, the Rays certainly have more pieces they can move to land Marte in a blockbuster deal. They have the pitching prospects in Michael Forret and Brody Hopkins. They have an MLB-ready outfield prospect in Jacob Melton. They also have a controllable starter in Ryan Pepiot, who has three years of arbitration eligibility left. They also have a controllable first baseman in Jonathan Aranda.
With plenty of tradeable assets that line up with the D-backs’ needs, the Rays certainly could be considered a frontrunner to pry Marte away from Arizona. Ken Rosenthal threw cold water on the idea that the two teams match in his latest report for The Athletic. Rosenthal noted that Tampa Bay might not have the arms that Arizona would be interested in following Baz’s trade within the division, and would require a third team to take their prospects.
A Marte deal is already going to be difficult enough to get done between two teams. Adding in a third team makes things much more difficult. With the D-backs looking for a more immediate return for pitching help, it may create more headaches than solve. If they can’t get what they think is a fair offer for Marte from the Rays or another organization, they may just move on.
Could Marte Rumors Come to an End Soon?
Lost in all the trade rumors is simply the fact that the D-backs hold all the leverage in negotiations. They can hold onto him because his contract is team-friendly. While he is their best trade chip to acquire controllable starting pitching, they shouldn’t settle for a middling return.
Based on my calculations, Marte’s surplus value from 2026-2030 adds up to $103.3 million. That’s based on a present-day value of $72.7 million remaining and a 16.0 WAR projection for the next five seasons.
The most recent trade that compares is what the Nationals got for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline. The Padres paid a significant price, with then-prospects MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, and C.J. Abrams going to Washington. Arizona will want a return closer to MLB, but that’s the type of talent it would take to get Marte. This offseason is about building a roster strong enough that the return of Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, and A.J. Puk puts them in a prime position to claim a postseason spot.
However, it looks like the Marte rumors will be coming to an end soon. Arizona Sports insider John Gambadoro reports that this will not drag on much longer (full tweet in link).
This fits Hazen’s modus operandi as the D-backs’ GM. He likes to get deals done quickly and move on to the next thing. He still has a bullpen missing viable late-inning arms and an outfield mess that he needs to address. If he’s not getting the type of offers he wants for Marte, he’ll simply pull him from the market and let his 10-5 rights take hold.
How Seriously Should We Take the Alex Bregman Rumors?
The D-backs have been linked to Alex Bregman of late. It makes sense that Arizona would at least negotiate. They have uncertainty at the third base position; Bregman is a clear upgrade, and he lives in Scottsdale in the offseason. The fit makes sense on paper if you don’t put too much thought into it.
However, I’m inclined to believe that Arizona is also in as a negotiating tactic. This is a common practice by Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras. He’s leveraging the D-backs interest to drive up the price, either in dollars or years, on other clubs. Gambadoro shares the same sentiment, putting this in the “longshot” category.
On my podcast, which is embedded below, I placed a handicap on 5-15% odds that the D-backs would actually sign Bregman. The type of money necessary to land him ($25-30 million AAV) would be better used to address the closer role and an outfield bat.
Two free agents I think would be a better use of the $25-30 million are Pete Fairbanks and Austin Hays. Arizona’s best bet to land Fairbanks would be a two-year deal (~20-22 million total) with an opt-out. Hays would be the primary starter in left field (~8-10 million per year deal). That allows the D-backs use a platoon in center field between Blaze Alexander and whoever they keep between Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas. They would flip the other for bullpen help.
Could Merrill Kelly Retire a Diamondback?
Merrill Kelly returned to the D-backs on a two-year deal this week. The deal has since been announced, with a corresponding roster move (analysis behind paywall) already made.
Both Hazen and Kelly spoke to the media on Friday.
“We feel pretty good about bringing Merrill back, obviously,” Hazen told Alex D’Agostino of Arizona Diamondbacks On SI. “He’s been one of the most consistent starting pitchers we’ve had here. He’s a leader in our clubhouse. He’s got the makeup to be at the front of our rotation. He gives a lot of stability to our rotation.”
"The reception's been great,” Kelly told D’Agostino. “Me and my family are very honored, very humbled by the reception. It seems like pretty much all the D-backs fan sare happy to have me back. They're happy with the choice that the front office made, which obviously makes you feel good."
Kelly’s contract guarantees him $40 million over the next two seasons. The only recent comparable situation was Charlie Morton with the Atlanta Braves. Morton re-upped on consecutive deals of $20 million for 2023 and 2024. After a stint in Baltimore and Detroit, Morton finished his career with a ceremonial sendoff with the Braves last season.
Kelly very well could be in that same scenario in Arizona. There is a vesting option in his contract for 2028. It triggers at 170 innings for the 2027 season, a mark he’s cleared in three of the last four seasons. The option has a base value of $12 million but could increase to $14 million if he logs 185 innings that year. I view that as unlikely, given that Kelly hasn’t pitched 185 innings more than once in his career (200.1 innings in 2022).
Should Kelly continue to be the reliable workhorse he’s been in his career, the likelihood he pitches for Arizona in 2028 is high. Should he complete that year, it would mark 10 seasons in the major leagues, all with Arizona.
Nick Ahmed remains the lone player in franchise history to spend parts of 10 seasons with the organization. Marte will be the next if he’s on the roster come Opening Day, and Kelly will hit that in 2028.
In 2024, Kelly said his primary goal was to pitch 10 years in the majors. This deal could pave the way for him to reach his goal. It’s unclear if he’ll pitch into his 40s, but if he doesn’t, his last game could be in a D-backs uniform.
